Grand National Runners: Why Synchronised will shorten this week - but shouldn't
Ante-Post Betting
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Tony Calvin /
09 April 2012 /
Synchronised pictured contemplating his forthcoming Grand National efforts
"Synchronised's tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse’s style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters’ betting habits."
Gold Cup winner Synchronised will have that man Tony McCoy on board in the Grand National, is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus. A deadly trio indeed. And whereas his price might shorten with the bookies before the off, it probably won't on Betfair.
There is little doubt that any horse ridden by Tony McCoy, trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus is sure to go off at an artificially short price in the Grand National.
You only have to look at their runners in recent seasons for examples.
Don't Push It went off as 10-1 joint-favourite when winning in 2010 and at 9-1 last year, while Butler's Cabin was 7-1 market leader in 2009 and 10-1 the year before. Clan Royal went off as 5-1 joint favourite with Hedgehunter in 2006, having started as 10-1 co-favourite in 2004 and 9-1 in 2005.
This is no coincidence.
Simply put, the off-course bookmakers are not going to let any horse with such famously recognisable colours and connections go off at a remotely generous price.
Remember, Don't Push It returned a Betfair SP of 19.18 when winning in 2010, as opposed to the industry SP of 10-1. The Betfair market suggests that Don't Push It wasn't shortened from 20-1 to 10-1 in the minutes leading up to the off purely because of weight of money. Indeed, the 2010 National book came in at 155 per cent.
What is ironic is that the horse representing the trio this year arguably deserves to be a shorter price than all of the above runners.
After all, Synchronised won the Gold Cup last month, is well-handicapped on that, and is a Welsh National and Midlands Grand National winner, so has already proved he stays extreme distances and is now proven on any ground.
So why shouldn't Synchronised, currently around 9-1 on Betfair, go off shorter than 5-1 Clan Royal in 2006?
Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin explained: "If any horse of JP, Jonjo and AP's in recent years deserves to go off such a short price favourite, it is surely Synchronised.
"But there is good reason to think that the Gold Cup hero won't, or shouldn't, shorten a great deal from his current price of 9-1 - on Betfair at least. Namely, his style of running.
"His tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse's style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters' betting habits.
"So even those who fancy the horse may sit and wait before looking to pounce in running.
"After all, why back it in single-figures pre-race when history suggests he will soon be backable at a double-figure price after the opening few fences?
"Synchronised has such a history. He traded at 22-1 and 24-1 in running before winning the Lexus and Gold Cup this season and at 17-2 and 23-1 in winning his Nationals at Chepstow and Uttoxeter.
"His SPs for those races were 8-1, 8-1, 5-1 and 15-2 respectively.
"Of course, once a system becomes known it often becomes redundant and there's a chance Synchronised will get into a smooth rhythm early on and his odds will tumble accordingly.
"But, even so, it may not be best to get drawn into the bookmakers' hype once the debate begins over what price Synchronised will start on Saturday.
"History tells us that he is likely to be too short - bookmakers have already shortened him into as low as 6-1 in places when he is around 9-1 on Betfair - but the more sophisticated exchange market may paint a truer picture of the betting reality."