The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 05 February 2012 / 6

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader...

17.40 - February 5, 2012

Refusing to get too down with events in Qatar, I've spent most of the day playing in the snow with the kids. Mercifully makes a golf result seem a little irrelevant.

None of the picks I made with a round to go performed at all this morning and it was soon apparent that it would all end in tears - especially as Paul Lawrie, who won with ease, was one of the first I considered this week. Oh well.

At the WM Phoenix Open, I couldn't resist laying the leader, Spencer Levin, in-running last night but I wish I hadn't. I'm against him at a shade over [1.5] now after laying him again today. Six shots is a massive lead, but the classy looking Kyle Stanley gave up a seven shot lead with nine to play last week and Levin definitely looks suspect. Those taking [1.35] about the leader now are braver punters than me.

14.35 - February 4, 2012

With just a round to go, the Qatar Masters is set up perfectly for an exciting finale. Paul Lawrie, on -8, leads Nicolas Colsaerts by one, with Peter Hanson and Ricardo Gonzalez tied for third on -6. Last minute pre-event pick, James Kingston, and Simon Khan are on -5 and there's a host of players on -4 and -3, and believe me, those that trail Lawrie by four and five shots are most definitely still in this.

The wind is due to drop tomorrow and all of a sudden, low scores will be far more attainable. The winner could well come from off the pace and it wouldn't be the first time that's happened here. In 2005, Ernie Els came from five back and in 2008, Adam Scott, having fired a scintillating final round 61, finished up winning by a very comfortable three shots, having started the day trailing by that margin.

If I was asked who I thought will win tomorrow I'd have to say Lawrie. He's played some superb golf, is clearly in fantastic form and he loves the course. He also overcame a one-shot penalty on the 10th today, after dropping his ball on his marker, to shoot his impressive five under-par 67. He may be the most likely winner but his price reflects that and given he's hardly prolific; I've taken a chance on half a dozen outsiders.

I backed Simon Khan (-5), Marc Warren (-4) and Andrew Dodt (-4) during round two (event reduced to just three rounds) and at the close of play I've also added a trio of Spaniards on -3 in the shape of Pablo Larrazabal, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. The latter has previous at final round swoops, Rafael shot 60 to win the Austria Open in 2009.

There are some classy players on -4 and -3 and the likes of Jason Day (-4), Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood or Martin Kaymer (all -3)could also come through and take the prize but they're not so generously priced and in a bun fight like this, I'm happy to play those at bigger odds. And besides, all my six are previous winners on the European Tour.

I can see all sorts of fun and games tomorrow and someone will make a charge for sure, I just hope it's one of mine.

At the WM Phoenix Open, where Spencer Levin, on -14, leads by three, a few players are yet to finish round two and one of them I've backed. I built up a modest wager on Harrison Frazar last night, who sits in second place, three ahead of John Huh and Webb Simpson in a tie for third. Hopefully he can get in the house safely and go from there.

Of my pre-event picks, only Ben Crane is within striking distance. On -6, he's fully eight back but the leaders could very easily come back. Levin has never won on Tour and last week he led after day one at the Farmers before shooting 76 in round two. He could very easily crumble and I wouldn't entertain any notions of backing him at his current price of just [2.78].

I'll be back again tomorrow with a good look at this one with just a round to go.

14.35 - February 3, 2012

It was forecast to blow hard at the Qatar Masters and blow hard it has. So much so that play was suspended this morning, with the early morning groups barely halfway through their rounds. A resumption of play never happened and they'll be back out there in the morning, with the event now reduced to 54 holes, which makes Alvaro Quiros' finish yesterday even more irritating.

Despite a bogey at the 18th (his 9th), presumably after finding water on the reachable par five, he managed to get himself to -3 through 16 holes. He looked to be playing well and given that he was just one off the lead, with the wind really getting up, I was more than happy with the state of play, and then disaster struck...

He missed the green off the tee on the par three 8th and then three-putted, from nowhere a double bogey. After that, he found the very edge of the par five 9th green in two. A two-putt from there would have gotten one of the dropped shots back and -2 would have been far from a disaster but instead he rolled his first putt a dozen feet by, left his birdie putt 18 inches short and then inexplicably missed that. He's now back on level par and he must have been fuming, I know I was.

John Daly leads at present on -5 but with the weather up in the air and a sprint finish in the offing, I'm just going to wait and see what tomorrow brings. Thomas Bjorn lost his way completely in the afternoon gales yesterday but it wasn't a surprise. The afternoon starters went round in an average of nearly two-and-a-half shots more than those that teed off in the morning and that was despite Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano somehow shooting -6 (he's dropped two this morning).

Paul Krishnamurty's fancy, Jason Day (currently -4), heads the market now and with three easy holes to face on return tomorrow, it's no surprise. I'll take a look again with a round to go.

At the WM Phoenix Open, they didn't manage to quite get round one finished yesterday, thanks to an early morning frost delay. In spite of the fact that I picked out fully ten selections before the off, I'm already in trouble! The best of mine so far are Scott Piercy and Justin Leonard on -3 but they're fully four shots behind first round leader Ryan Palmer on -7. It's a little bit frustrating because Ryan was definitely one of those I looked at closely, especially as Paul put him up in his Find Me A 100 Winner column, and boy is he in form. As a multiple Tour winner with course form, he fitted the bill but even though I appeared to do my damndest, you can't back them all, can you. Oh well.

Again, I'm going to await developments here too and I'll be back tomorrow at the halfway stage.

Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Alvaro Quiros @ an average of [19.5]
Thomas Bjorn @ [26.0]
James kingston @ [220.0]

In-Running plays
Marc Warren @ an average of [60.0]
Simon Khan @ an average of [80.0]
Andrew Dodt @ [85.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [90.0]
Pablo Larrazabal @ [120.0]
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]

WM Phoenix Open Pre-Event Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [65.0]
Gary Woodland @ [65.0]
Ian Poulter @ [70.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [75.0]
Ben Crane @ [75.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [85.0]
Brian Gay @ [95.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [120.0]
Chris Kirk @ [160.0]
Justin Leonard @ [190.0]

In-running play
Harison Frazar @ an average of [12.0]

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(6)

1. ste | 04 February 2012

   I see ur still writing pointless stuff, what's the point of tellin us you've bet someone afterwards. Anyone can say they bet someone afterwards I don't care if you're being honest there is just no point to what you do. You say you bet kingston but there is nothing anywhere in your blog but you have added a comment to say you bet him. Its all pointless and not good reading. Can I tell you who I bed during round one and two no cos no one is interested

2. Steven Rawlings | 06 February 2012

   Hi Ste,

   Thanks from the feedback, very much appreciated. I agree, it's not ideal when I back someone after the preview has been posted but it was put on the comments section on Wednesday.

   As for your other points, I'm sorry you find my work pointless and not good reading but of course, you’re welcome not to do so.

   And as for your final point, I disagree strongly, there may well be a lot of people interested in who you’re bedding!

   Many thanks
   Steve

3. Alex | 06 February 2012

   Ste, you are of course entitled to your opinion, but having followed Steve's advice for a while now, I have to disagree with you.

   I wish that pointless posts from people like you would stop clogging up a very decent blog. Having been in the trading game for nearly a year now, I have dramatically increased my knowledge of the game, form guides, player profiles etc with the help of Steve and numerous others. If you actually took the time to read Steve's picks over the years you would realize that he is a very good tipster.

   Furthermore, and perhaps this irritated me the most about your post, is that this is Steve's opinion. You do not have to read it. Personally, I always look forward to reading it and I form my bets based on my own knowledge, Steve's advice, other tipsters and numerous other factors. Also, if you want an indication of how popular and respected his advice is, it is not a coincidence that prices rapidly shorten on the exchange after he posts his blog.

   Lastly, of course he may back a player at the last minute or in play and not have time to mention it. That is the nature of golf trading, snatching good value in an incredibly small window of opportunity. So please keep your negative comments to your self.

   On a side-note, sorry I haven't commented much lately Steve, I got a full time job in London and stopped trading for a while whilst I settled in. However, I've started 2012 with a bang, backing Snedeker last week and picked both Stanley and Lawrie this week pre-tournament! It sure has already been a strange one for collapses on the PGA tour. I should have layed Stanley last week and Levin this one. Ah the joys of hindsight. Keep up the excellent reads.

   Alex

4. ste | 06 February 2012

   Advice what advice Alex. This is what I'm getting at how is someone telling readers he bet someone after its happened called advice. This is what is wrong with people like you as soon as someone critices you stick together as a team and have the cheek to call my comment pointless. I'm not using bad language or being personal I just don't think this blog does anyone any good. When u have just lost your money the last thing you want to read is someone saying they bet someone after its happened. How is that advice. I bet man utd to draw with chelsea when they were getting tonked and I'm telling u after the game does that mean I've just give some good advice

5. Mike Norman | 07 February 2012

   Ste, as previously already mentioned, you are fully entitled to your opinion but I think you are missing the point somewhat.

   The Punter's In-Play blog is not intended to be 'advice' and Steve (the author of the column) doesn't claim that it is a tipping column, for want of better words. The In-Play blog is effectively a diary of Steve's bets during a tournament, and it also provides some very useful information that you may not have known unless you had actually watched the live golf.

   Take Rory McIlroy two weeks ago for example. As I didn't watch the live golf I didn't know that McIlroy had incurred a two shot penalty during round two. Steve highlighted this fact and for me, this is very useful In-Play information.

   True, Steve might add more wagers to his portfolio during the event but this is normal for someone who backs and lays, and as Steve himself has already pointed out, it's not ideal that he can't inform you of his backs and lays until he does his blog. But then if you treat the blog as a diary rather than advice then this is perfectly acceptable in my opinion.

   You may also be interested to learn that Steve does offer advice in his pre-tournament articles, which to me is unmissable reading. And I'm sure Steve would welcome feedback, good or bad, on his pre-tournament selections/advice.

   Whilst I can slightly understand your frustration Ste, I think it's all built-up because of your thinking that The Punter's In-Play blog is a tipping column. It's not, it's a diary of The Punter's betting activity and an update of the current state of play. Please remember this next time you make a comment on one of his articles.

   I wish you all the best in your golf betting Ste.

6. Steven Rawlings | 07 February 2012

   Ste,

   There are no bets highlighted after the event. The Kingston bet you mention, which was a loser anyway, was struck on Wednesday, after the preview was posted, but it was put in the comments on Wednesday night. I think you're being harsh but as Mike says, we welcome any feedback.

   Alex,

   Glad to hear you've had such a cracking start to the year, nice to get in front!

   Cheers
   Steve
   

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