The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 January 2012 /

Our man takes it easy from the get-go with just the ten picks! What will it take to win the W M Phoenix Open? See what Steve thinks here...

Tournament
One of the oldest events on the US PGA tour, this will be the 75th WM Phoenix Open.

Venue
TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona

Course Details
Par 71, 7216 yards. Best known for its barmy par three 16th hole, this stadium course was built specifically for this event and this year it hosts the event for the 26th time. It's a links style desert track with an exciting finish. The 15th is a reachable par five with water in play and the 17th is drivable but also with water in play. Look out for low scores; there have been three rounds of 60 here, the last by Phil Mickelson in 2005.

Useful Sites

https://wmphoenixopen.com/

https://www.tpc.com/tpc-scottsdale

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday, 9.00pm on Saturday and back to 8.00pm on Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Mark Wilson -18
2010 - Hunter Mahan -16
2009 - Kenny Perry -14
2008 - J.B Holmes -14
2007 - Aaron Baddeley -21

Typical Winner
Recent winners include big hitters Phil Mickelson and J.B Holmes but Driving Distance has been of little importance of late. The last two winners ranked 1st for Greens In regulation and Kenny Perry ranked 3rd in 2009, so accuracy over power is again the way to go. There's usually a hectic close finish (three of the last four have gone to a playoff) with plenty of late drama.

Market leaders
We've yet another very open looking heat on the PGA Tour to ponder, with Webb Simpson heading the list. Last week's jammy winner Brandt Snedeker's next in the list at [24.0] with four others all trading in the [20.0]'s. None of which make much appeal. Rickie Fowler [27.0] should have won here two years ago but he's still looking for his first PGA Tour win and he's too short for me. Phil Mickelson trades at [30.0] and he has a good record, having won the event twice and finished runner-up four years ago too, but he was dreadful at Torrey Pines last week and he's not quite big enough for me to take a chance on.

Selections
Last year's US PGA Tour season was one of the toughest for us punters in as long as I can remember and 2012 has started in much the same vein. Add to that, the fact that I've struggled with this event over the years and there was definitely a case for taking it very easy from the get-go, so I've backed ten!

I started out by backing Scott Piercy, who already has form here and who has started the year well and although I has no intention of going mad from the start, I couldn't stop seeing value. I guess it's because I'm not keen on any towards the head of the market.

Here's one for the fans of the 'Nappy Factor'. Ian Poulter enjoys desert golf and he's returning to the fray after the birth of his brand new son Joshua. This is his first start since he won the JB Were Masters too so I couldn't work out why he was so big.

I'm not arguing with Paul Krishnamurty's reasoning with regards to Gary Woodland and I've backed a few others who have seen their prices dramatically rise after a poor week or two - Ben Crane and Jonathan Byrd in particular.

I've spread my stakes thin and wide but given my record here I'll probably still enter the weekend without a chance. We'll see, fingers crossed.

WM Phoenix Open Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [65.0]
Gary Woodland @ [65.0]
Ian Poulter @ [70.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [75.0]
Ben Crane @ [75.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [85.0]
Brian Gay @ [95.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [120.0]
Chris Kirk @ [160.0]
Justin Leonard @ [190.0]

I'll be back on Thursday or Friday with the In-Play Blog.

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