The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 January 2012 / 4

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here...

Tournament
This will be the 15th staging of the Commercialbank Qatar Masters, the middle leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East swing.

Venue
Doha Golf Club, Qatar

Course Details
Par 72, 7388 yards. Like last week's venue, Doha was also designed by Peter Harradine. Punter's may want to keep a close eye on the weather forecast, the wind plays a big part in the outcome of the tournament and those drawn in the afternoon on day one last year were severely hampered. Runner-up, Alvaro Quiros, playing in the very worst of the winds and was five over par at one stage on day one. I'd shown my hand before the draw was made and I've one pick with a good draw and one with a poor one, but the forecast suggests an early start on Thursday could be a distinct advantage, so if you haven't played yet, make sure you bear that in mind. The rough is even less penal this year because of the forecast windy conditions.

Useful Sites

www.dohagolfclub.com

www.qatar-masters.com

https://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Doha/forecasts/latest

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 7.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.30am Saturday and 8.30am on Sunday

Last five winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -14
2010 - Robert Karlsson -15
2009 - Alvaro Quiros -19
2008 - Adam Scott -20
2007 - Retief Goosen -15

Typical Winner
As is so often the case, the most important stat here is Greens In Regulation. Unlike last week, Driving Accuracy isn't crucial at all. The plan here is fairly simple, bang it a long way off the tee, find the green and get hot with the putter. Although only Adam Scott has been successful more than once here, the same players tend to contend and conversely, some players just don't seem to get it. Martin Kaymer's record is lamentable and Rory McIlroy hasn't been back after a couple of fruitless visits.

Market Leaders
Lee Westwood has a fine record at Doha without winning but he was carrying an injury last week and that's more than enough to put me off. Sergio Garcia also has bits and pieces of form here but he's plenty short enough for my liking. Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are the next two in the list and of the two, I much prefer G-Mac. He didn't look miles off last week whereas Kaymer was awful. As previously stated, the German's record here is poor too.

Selections
I picked out Alvaro Quiros as a pick here at the end of last year. Put simply, he's a no-brainer bet, especially now he has an advantageous early start on Thursday. He won the event three years ago and he's finished runner-up in each of the last two years. He missed the cut last week but he's never got to grips with Abu Dhabi and I'm happy to dismiss that performance. Hopefully, it's given him the opportunity to blow away a bit of rust and us a chance to get a better price here. I'd have gladly taken [16.0] and was delighted to get on at an average of [19.5].

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn, hasn't looked back since success here, challenging hard at the Open Championship and winning a couple more times on the Race to Dubai. He won comfortably last year (four strokes) and played very well last week. For once, Thomas isn't overlooked in the market but I still wanted him onside. Unfortunately his afternoon draw on Thursday isn't anywhere near as favourable as Alvaro's morning one.

Qatar Masters Selections
Alvaro Quiros @ an average of [19.5]
Thomas Bjorn @ [26.0]
James Kingston @ [220.0] - See comments

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the WM Phoenix Open, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

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1. theft | 01 February 2012

   Hi Steve,

   I have been looking through your previews of this event from years gone by and think u may have missed out on a player who should really be on your radar. Johan Edfors

   1/ Your key stat this week is greens in regulation.

   Johan was 1st in GIR last week at abu dhabi.

   2/ Last yr you wrote "There looks to be a correlation between the two venues(here and portugal masters) and maybe also this one and Leopard Creek."

   He has form of 23-41-6 in the portugal masters and was 2nd in 2008 alfred dunhill at leopard creek.

   3/ He has good course form here, 4th in 08 and 16th in 09. Last yr he shot 80 in the 1st round in the afternoon weather, but rallied to make the cut and finished 55th.

   4/ Your winning criteria is bang it off the tee, find the green and putt well.

   I think this describes his game pretty well.

   Only drawbacks being, his afternoon draw and the fact he hasnt won since 06.

   He has been steadily supported on betfair this afternoon. Your thoughts?
   

2. Steven Rawlings | 01 February 2012

   Hi theft,

   I can’t argue with you really, and you’re certainly not alone. I was chatting with Paul Krishnamurty this afternoon and I know he’s pretty keen on Edfors this week too. Though like you, he’s concerned about his draw.

   I’m not a huge Edfors fan if I’m honest, as he does seem to struggle in-contention, and even though he won three times in 2006, they were all off-the-pace wins. That said, he was successful in Thailand in 2009 in a rather weak event and on that occasion he led from start to finish.

   I’m probably being picky re his temperament and my main issue would be the draw. I’ve had my fingers burnt on more occasions than I care to remember relying on weather forecasts but I can remember how awful it was last year in the afternoon on day one and I really want to hang fire on any more picks (apart from one) until I see how it pans out. The forecast doesn’t look great for Friday either, with the morning looking no better than the afternoon.

   I don’t usually look again once I’ve done my preview but you’ve got the cogs turning again theft and I’ve added James Kingston at a big price. He’s out in the very first group in the morning, played well last week, has form here and played alongside winner Tom Lewis at last year’s Portugal Masters. Also looked at Richard Green but he’s badly out of form.

   Good luck theft, and thanks for getting in touch. I shall keep my eye on Edfors, maybe one to play in-running if he survives the gales!

   All the best,

   Steve
   

3. Anonymous | 01 February 2012

   I don't get all this talk about a bad draw please explain. If a player is out late on first day (bad draw) then he will be out early the next day won't he. Or are you just saying its going to be very bad on the afternoon of the first day but calm on the afternoon of the second day.

4. Steven Rawlings | 02 February 2012

   Hi Anonymous,

   Yes, morning day one = afternoon day two and vice versa.

   The reason the draw appeared so relevant this week was the forecast, with the only predicated respite from the high winds being early this morning. Tomorrow’s forecast still suggests it will blow hard all day long.

   Of course, even if you get the good draw, you can’t afford to finish your round by double-bogeying the 8th and four-putting the 9th. Well done Alvaro!

   Cheers
   Steve
   

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