Internationals / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 11 November 2011 /

It's extremely difficult to make a case for England against the all-conquering European and World champions. England should score, and Darren Bent should be the one doing it, but that's unlikely to be enough, says Jamie Pacheco.

Match Odds/Correct Score

Most of their senior players are out for one reason or another, manager Fabio Capello would rather be washing down his bucatini amatriciana with a nice glass of chianti elsewhere and then there's the matter of who they're actually facing: none other than the current European and World Champions. Who have just qualified for Euro 2012 with an 100% record, no less. And you won't find much consolation as a would-be England backer from their recent head-to-head results: Spain have won the last three without conceding, including a 1-0 triumph on English soil in 2007.

It's difficult to make a case for England, so we won't. And it's a measure of the gulf in class between these two sides that despite England being at home, we don't even want to be with the draw.

Still, there's a sense of having somewhat missed the boat with Spain's price. They were available at [2.3] last week when this market first went up and we already knew all the players that would be out for England; so do we really still want to be backing them at a price that's a full 20% shorter than it was then?

Probably not, even though we still think Spain will win and wouldn't put anyone off backing the World champs at what is still a decent price.

But we fancy England to score, more on that later, so we're better off backing Spain to win 2-1 ([9.8])and 3-1 instead at (18.0).

Spain clean sheet?

Only once in their last 15 matches have England not scored, a goalless draw at home to Montenegro back in October 2010.

We all remember Spain's run at the World Cup that included four consecutive clean sheets as they racked up four 1-0 wins en route to the final. But the clean sheets have somewhat dried up since and they kept just three in qualifying from eight matches, two of which were against Liechtenstein. Their record in recent friendlies is no better: they've conceded in all of their last four.

The absence of Wayne Rooney deprives England of a source of goals and assists but his recent record of three in eight is somewhat misleading. Two of those were penalties away at Otelul Galati and the other a deflected goal in the last few minutes at Old Trafford, also against the Romanians. He shouldn't be missed too much.

All in all the price on Spain of [2.5] to keep a clean sheet is too short. It's a lay.

To Score

So who's going to get that England goal? Frank Lampard is an obvious candidate at around [5.5] to score at anytime. He's getting a rare chance to captain the side which might give him that little extra bit of motivation (as if any was needed up against Spain), he's been in good scoring form for Chelsea (two in his last three) and will be on penalty duty as usual. But the better bet might be an even more obvious one.

Darren Bent will almost certainly start because Fabio Capello is unlikely to pair two youngsters together meaning that one of Daniel Sturridge or Danny Welbeck is likely to miss out. Bent has scored five in his last six for club and four in his last five for country. We get an unusually big price on the Villa man to net because the market fancies Spain so strongly to win and the clean sheet is under-priced. He's a bet at round [3.8].

I can still hear them: "What's Fabregas doing leaving Arsenal to go sit on the bench at Barcelona?". Well, for starters winning two more trophies in four months than he did at Arsenal in six years but more relevant to us, he's scoring plenty of goals, from a more advanced role than we saw him play at the Emirates. No fewer than seven in 13 appearances in all competitions for Barca. Fabregas' place in Spain's starting XI isn't guaranteed because there are more people queuing up for a place there than Newcastle fans wanting to have a go at Paul Moon. But he may be handed a start and would appeal at around [4.5] if he does and at around [8.0] if he doesn't. He's scored a few off the bench at Barca this season and should get at least half-an-hour of game time.

Best bet:

Back Spain to win 2-1 @ [9.8] and 3-1 @ [18.0]

Other Bet:

Lay a Spain clean sheet at [2.5]

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