Women's Draw / Gary Boswell / 15 June 2011 /

Her absence from the women's Tour for the best part of a year has opened the door for others to come through, win Slams and cause her ranking to drop. But Serena is back and she means business, says Gary Boswell.

It's difficult to get away from the perception that the price on Serena Williams successfully defending the upcoming Wimbledon women's crown is an absolute steal. She's [5.7] and that will tumble if she shows up well at Eastbourne this week so the time to get your dosh on is now. It's a solid back-to-lay if nothing else and the only way it falls is if she doesn't make the satisfactory transition back from injury.

The price is large because of that injury of course. No underestimating blood clots on the lung and recurrence of breathing difficulty and/or a serious rustiness due to the year long lay off are possible scuppers. But knowing Serena, you can balance against that the fact that she comes here fresh. Always a bonus when backing the Williams sisters, who thrive on hunger fuelled by absence. Venus is also an interesting price at [16.0] and is decent back up as her first game back from injury resulted in a demolition of upcoming youngster Andrea Petkovic - proof positive that there's life in the old legs yet.

I laid Serena at Wimbledon last year on the theory that the years would be catching up with her (and a good young crop were fast emerging) but I could not have been more wrong. Experience is prevailing at the top end of women's tennis at the moment. Particularly in the Slams. The last seven have been won by players over the age of 28 with Ana Ivanovic's 2008 win at Roland Garros the last Slam to go to an upcoming youngster. That seems an eternity ago now.

The top end of the betting is dominated by the old guard with Maria Sharapova at [5.9] and recent French Open champion Li Na at [9.4]. Kim Clijsters was amongst the favourites a couple of days ago but her price has drifted to [21.0] amidst concerns she may actually not play at all because of an injury. All three of them are lays for me if Serena shows any kind of form at Eastbourne this week. She has a clear head to head plus over all three. I was going to be interested in Sharapova if she won at Roland Garros but the delightfully self titled 'cow on ice' had a recurrence of her serving frailty in the semi final against Li Na and she is now very short at [5.9] in view of her recent record against Serena.

The Chinese 29 year old surpassed herself on the clay to win her first Slam and she has to be interesting back on the preferred grass surface. She is certainly Mrs Consistency having reached quarter finals at least in four of the last six slams but last year's QF against Serena at SW19 was proof of the dominance in the game of an on-song Serena serve. Li Na represents the best return of serve in the game at the moment but it couldn't handle Serena's booming serves in a clear straight sets defeat. That's how good the American was last time she played tennis. A 75% return to that form will see her win again on Wimbledon's grass.

There are some interesting longshots to follow as back-to-lays and as cover in the event of Serena falling short in her comeback. The youngster with the grass pedigree is German Sabine Lisicki who has also been long absent with injury but warmed up with a win at Birmingham this week. Her price of [50.0] or bigger interests me as does her final victim at Edgbaston, Daniela Hantucheva [75.0] who fits the age profile of a Slam winner and who had an excellent run at Roland Garros and is now very much back on her favoured surface. Tsvetana Pironkova was [630.0] at the weekend and is best priced [140.0] now as punters remember her run on the grass last year. I'd prefer the former price but she is a subtle player on her day and should not be dismissed as a possible for the QF or further once more. Other monster price of interest is Lucie Safarova at [370.0]. She comes in good form and has the serve to do well on grass.

I shall be playing the portfolio approach to the outright market as usual with the following pre-Tournament back and lay strategy. For those who prefer the single tip on the likely winner approach, there's only one advice. Stick with Serena.

WIMBLEDON WOMEN'S WINNER pre-tournament portfolio recommendations:

2pts BACK SERENA WILLIAMS @ [5.7]
0.5pt BACK VENUS WILLIAMS @ [16.0]
0.5pt BACK SABINE LISICKI @ [50.0] or bigger
0.5pt BACK DANIELA HANTUCHEVA @ [75.0] or bigger
0.5pt BACK LUCIE SAFAROVA @ [370.0] or bigger
2pt LAY on MARIA SHARAPOVA @ [5.9]
1pt LAY on KIM CLIJSTERS @ [11.0]
1pt LAY on LI NA @ [9.4]

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