US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 10 September 2009 /

The younger Williams sister is in sensational touch and can advance a career record of 7-1 over Kim Clijsters tonight, according to Gary Boswell

It is not inconceivable that Kim Clijsters has improved beyond all recognition in her two years away from the game but that will need to be the case though for her to have a chance in the upcoming US Open women's semi-final.

She faces a Serena Williams who is showing signs of getting back to that 'unplayable' level she achieved in 2002/2003 and there is no getting away from the fact that the most ferocious mentally competitive sportswoman of all time bar none is on a serious mission to wrestle back her world number one ranking with a decisive win at Flushing Meadow.

The oddsmakers are with Serena and she is [1.42] to prevail and that's because she has a totally dominant 7-1 head to head score over the Belgian. That kind of stat is very influential in women's tennis. You could pick holes in it and say that means Clijsters has won once and therefore cannot be ruled out entirely. The answer to that would be that you'd want odds of [8.0] to consider her chance realistic and she actually comes in at [3.35] - a short price even for a former champion when you are talking up against Serena.

Then you can argue that Serena's last win against Clijsters was back in 2003 and that they have mysteriously managed to avoid each other since so that as current form it is pretty unreliable.

True, and I'd agree that Serena is not the player she was back then but she has claimed for a while that she is capable of getting back there both mentally and physically.

The trick of successful gambling though is never being afraid to change your mind in the face of fresh evidence. I had her under the microscope at Wimbledon and concluded that she was beatable but that the opponent did need to be on the absolute top of their game and even then also had to outwit the ferocious mental barrage.

And then there's the Serena serve. Unreturnable at its best and looking every bit in that category at the moment.

Clijsters will make more of a fight of it than opponents in this tournament have so far and a classic is a possibility as the Belgian does seem in equally inspired form - the [2.38] on a three setter looks a good additional bet to act as a bonus on Serena winning and a saver in case of a surprise Clijsters success.

There's no getting away from the main bet though. That 7-1 head to head is totally conclusive for me - and [1.42] is shorter than I would bet on anything other than a stone cold certainty but in tennis terms, this is as near to that as you can possibly be.

The other women's semi-final might be academic as the winner is sure to be a longshot against whoever wins the 'heavyweight' contest. Caroline Wozniacki is one of those on a long list of youngsters waiting patiently for their chance in the limelight (i.e. when the Williams sisters retire!) and is a strong favourite [1.29] to make it to her moment of glory in a tournament where the projected fall away of all the fancied runners has been relentless. She faces rank outsider Yanina Wickmayer [4.2] and has the game and serve to continue the demolition she served up to Melanie Oudin in the quarters.

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