US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 11 September 2010 /

Rafael Nadal takes on Mikhail Youzhny tonight and though the odds suggest it should be little more than a formality, there are reasons to think it may be actually be a pretty close match..

2010 French Open and Wimbledon Champion and current world no.1 Rafael Nadal has been playing some impeccable tennis over the last two weeks in Flushing Meadows; the current world no.1 is yet to drop a set and astonishingly has been broken on serve only once in five matches. The Spaniard, who is yet to reach a US Open final, faces Mikhail Youzhny of Russia in a rematch of the 2006 quarterfinals in which Youzhny outplayed his Spanish opponent to record an outstanding win in four sets. The current head-to-head series is led by Rafael Nadal 7-4, however from the six matches played on hard courts Youzhny has won the last three and leads his opponent 4-2 overall on the surface.

All the talk at the moment is of a Nadal v Federer final so the pressure will be on the Spaniard to succeed much more than Youzhny, who loves his tag of being the overwhelming underdog. However, it is going to be an uphill struggle for the 28 year-old, ranked 14 in the world. Nadal has had an amazing year and comes into tonight's semi-final match having won 19 in a row at Grand Slam level, and amazingly 37 in a row when priced as heavy favourite. Youzhny hasn't done too badly himself, winning five in a row on hard courts, and more interestingly seven in a row against left handed opponents.
There is a huge amount of value at [12.0] in the match odds to back Youzhny pre match seeing as he has a great record against Nadal on the hard courts and I can see this match being a lot closer than people expect, making my best bet backing Youzhny +6.5 Games.

Selection:

Back Youzhny +6.5 Games @ 2.3
Back Mikhail Youzhny @ 12.0 (small bet - to trade out at lower price)

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