US Open Betting: Nadal to prove them all wrong

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 26 August 2011 /

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He's been out of form but never write off this man's determination and mental strength

"The defending champ has the best draw, and despite not being in the greatest of form, at [5.6] he looks value to prove everyone wrong again."

There are plenty of question marks over all of the top four seeds including injury, loss of form and fatigue. But Rafael Nadal gets the nod at a big price to successfully defend his title.

The 2011 US Open draw has been made and the final Slam of the year looks to be potentially the most exciting, with question marks hanging over over the main contenders.

Will Novak Djokovic's shoulder hold up for the entire fortnight? Will Rafa recover from his burnt fingers and rediscover his missing form? Has Roger Federer got another Slam in him? And can Andy Murray claim that elusive first major?

Those are the questions to which you could probably add: 'Will Juan Martin Del Potro's form return?', as well in what will effectively be the Argentine defending the title he won here so spectacularly two years ago.

The draw has paired Djokovic and Federer in the top half, with Murray and Nadal together in the bottom half and if you're looking for a big priced dark horse then you'd think that would be the place to start, but I can't make a case for any of them in that section.

Murray's win in Cincy, which made followers of this column a nice few quid last week, makes him the most in-form of the top four seeds, but he has been beaten by Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic in New York in his last two visits.

The Scot hasn't been handed the easiest of draws, with talented pair, Somdev Devvarman and Robin Haase his likely opening opponents but after that Feliciano Lopez and Wawrinka himself should be there for the taking.

Wawrinka's form is awful at the moment, but he has the talent and it remains a potential banana skin for the Scot.

I expect him to prevail though to a quarter final against either Del Potro, Robin Soderling or John Isner and if it's the Argentine, as I feel is likely, we'll have a repeat of the 2008 quarter final, which Murray won en-route to the final.

Soderling hasn't played since winning Bastad last month and his hard-court form has been poor for the majority of 2011. Add his average New York form into the mix and you have one to avoid at around [50.0].

Del Potro pretty much carried all before him ahead of the tournament when he won here in 2009, but he isn't back to his best yet after that wrist injury and I can't see him reaching another US Open final this year at around [25.0]. He could easily become inspired by a return to New York though.

Defending champion Nadal has been given a kind draw in which to try and retain his title, with Andy Roddick, David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Jurgen Melzer, Mikhail Youzhny and Ernests Gulbis the main challengers in his quarter.

Rafa will need to improve hugely upon his recent performances to make the semis, but I feel that he probably will. Expect Nadal to labour through early on and improve as the tournament goes on.

Another Nadal v Murray semi final could be on the cards, with only really John Isner at around [260.0] looking like he might pose a threat at a big price, but even that looks most unlikely.

The top section of the draw is where a few of the more fancied long shots have been placed, but the draw has put them all in the same half.

Mardy Fish will probably have to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic to even reach the final and [40.0] looks a bit short for him to cause a shock on that basis.

The same applies to Tsonga of course at [38.0] and Federer for once has a tricky draw with those two and Marin Cilic in his quarter, plus Viktor Troicki, who has played well in New York in the past.

Federer's up and down form makes this quarter tough to pick, but the last time the Swiss failed to reach at least the semis was way back in 2003. Another quarter final against Tsonga could be very interesting though.

Finally, Djokovic's main threats should come from Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils, and of these you would feel that the Czech has the weapons to hurt the world number one, but has he the fitness and mental fortitude?

Probably not, but the Berdman looked superb at times in Cincy and if Djokovic's shoulder isn't quite right, Berdych looks in the kind of form that saw him reach the Wimbledon final, so at around [80.0] he's worth an investment.

The Czech has never bettered the last 16 in New York and lost first up last year, but he looks the most likely of the bigger priced players.

To sum up though, if Djokovic is fit he should win, but he's short at [2.64] after a lot of matches this year and he's beginning to look a bit jaded physically and mentally so I prefer the chances of Nadal.

The defending champ has the best draw, and despite not being in the greatest of form, at [5.6] he looks value to prove everyone wrong again.

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