US Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 23 August 2011 /

All-conquering Serena Williams is a short priced Flushing Meadows favourite but Gary can't quite convince himself to take her on, but he does have a pair of recommendations at more rewarding odds

Are you brave enough to take on Serena Williams in the US Open betting? The three-time champion is just [2.72] to win, seemingly a working man's lay price in a 128-strong field if ever there was one.

With defending champion Kim Clijsters out injured and the younger Williams sister back in the groove after a tournament win in Toronto, the shortest of short prices is understandable.

Mathematical logic screams at you to take it on but one look at that fearsome cross court forehand - now working back at its 2002 level - and even the world's most hardened layers pause for thought.

I was keen on Serena's chance at Wimbledon where she was offered at treble these odds but her unexpected fourth round exit against Marion Bartoli was the first time she failed to make a slam quarter-final since 2008. Coming back from the year long enforced absence took its toll, but it's worth noting that Bartoli was unable to play her game next round. Even at half pace, Serena had taken all the juice out of the Frenchwoman.

And now Serena is back in the groove, well-oiled and with 13 Slam titles in the satchel. Who can seriously be expected to stop her?

Maria Sharapova fans will point to the Russian's win in Cincinnati and at [7.4] she is a justifiable second favourite. The final win over Jelena Jankovic can only be described as workmanlike, however.

Gone are the days of Sharapova's un-returnable forehand and whilst I admire that refusal to resort to the 'safe' second serve in order to cut down the high double fault count, I can't but factor it into the truism that Sharapova is not the Major winner of old.

To be fair to her, the slow inch toward a return took another step forward in making the Wimbledon final. But does that and the Cincinnati performance convince you that she is now ready to take on a purring Serena? Not me. I seriously admire the way Sharapova's mental strength is continuing to move her tortuous recovery ever forward but my eyes tell me that the physical limitations continue. Sadly for her, whilst she inches back to where she once was, the younger brigade are leap-frogging in the same direction without the handicap she endures.

And chief among that fast-moving group of whippersnappers is her Wimbledon conqueror Petra Kvitova. When I flagged up the Czech starlet 12 months ago, I likened her to a gallumphing giraffe but forecast that, with more graceful movement, a possible successor to Steffi Graf had been found. The way she handled the Wimbledon final (and its aftermath) was mightily impressive and at [13.0], you have to be interested in her at Flushing Meadow.

Having taken her inaugural Slam, she now gets the test against the single most dominant woman in the last 12 years of the game. But can she really challenge Serena? It will be very interesting to find out and at the odds, she is the better bet.

I have no doubt of her strength and mental capacity to match Serena. The slight doubt is the surface where Kvitova remains unproven. The quarter-final wilt against Zvonareva in Melbourne worries me (although it may just have been one of those women's tennis things and it was replicated against Li Na in Paris). Maybe hardcourt is not the surface for seeing Kvitova's booming groundstrokes at their best although she has always struck me as a young woman able to learn. Chances are Kvitova is on the cusp of that prediction of stepping into Graf's shoes and at the price, she's worth backing if you do indeed possess the testicles to take Serena on!

Several outsiders sit in my back to lay pile for the upcoming fortnight. Hardcourt is the surface for Vera Zvonareva [22.0] and Caroline Wozniacki [21.0] but both are a bit short and can't be fancied in the head-to-head against Serena.

Flavia Pennetta always does well on the surface but is currently below par and a better bet in the doubles so I plump instead for the Israeli Shahar Peer as my number one at [490.0] or longer. She has previous form here (QF in 2007 and likewise at Melbourne in the same year and on the same surface) and is a good thing to get through the early rounds.

Check the draw when it comes out on Friday to make sure she sidesteps the floaters (Serena herself will be in a slightly false draw position due to that year out) and if she's clear of the sharks, get on Peer as your solid gold back-to-lay.

Gary Boswell's Recommended Bets at the US Open
1pt Back Petra Kvitova @ [13.5] or longer
1pt Back-to-Lay Shahar Peer @ [490.0] or longer

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