Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 07 July 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton praises the Wimbledon performances of super-human Rafael Nadal but is more concerned with what we as punters can learn from the tournament as a whole going into the hard-court season...

One of the worst kept secrets in professional tennis became public knowledge during the last month on the ATP Tour. It's now official that Roger Federer can be considered to be 'on the slide' and that Rafael Nadal is very much the heir apparent to the position of world No.1.

For now, Roger retains that title - but not for long. In our review of May we commented on Rafa's dominance of clay and a fourth French Open crown. What can we say about June?

The grass court season saw no let up to the Spaniard's progress as wins at both Queen's and then Wimbledon confirmed the promise which many observers saw coming some 12 months earlier in the last great Wimbledon final - that is before this year's renewal took that level to even greater heights.

Although the grass court mini-season sits rather uncomfortably in the schedule, polarising opinion among the players and fans alike, it acts as a watershed from the clay of Europe to the hard courts of North America. It's a time of change within the tennis year. From hereon it will also be considered as marking the shift in power between the top two in the men's game.

But these two aside we saw a great month of action throughout June with some notable
performances along the way. The table below highlights these feats :-

These results also brought to mind a number of our earlier articles. Hence, as we do every month, we take this opportunity to revisit a few of our previous discussions about the world of tennis and, more to the point, tennis betting. A look back at what we said and a review of whether it actually came to pass ...

Will A Clay-Courter Win Wimbledon?

That's the question we posed the week before the Championships at SW19. I think our question has been well and truly answered by Señor Nadal. A stunning victory but, please note, we also saw Nadal win at Queen's and David Ferrer was victorious in s'Hertogenbosch. Perhaps grass is finally becoming a more all-inclusive surface after all. We waited 20 odd years for a Spaniard to win on grass, now we've had three wins in a month!

https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens-draw/wimbledon-bets-the-days-of-claycourters-not-being-able-200608.html

Who Are the Five Set Winners And Losers?

A question we asked as the tournament unfolded. During the fortnight we saw the statistics borne out well as those with the better figures did come through the longer matches. And, of course, what about the final? Well, Nadal had a 75% win record in 5 set matches prior to the final and Federer only had a 55% success rate. So, in a strange way, the longer the match went on, the more likely Rafa was to win it!

https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens-draw/wimbledon-betting-three-set-thrillers-or-five-set-failu-270608.html
Winning Titles Is All Between The Ears

Getting to a final is one thing, winning it is another. We looked into the data surrounding players' win percentages in finals. Interesting to note in Sopot (Davydenko), s'Hertogenbosch (Ferrer) and Nottingham (Karlovic) the winners all had much better statistics in finals, than the losers - Robredo, Gicquel and Verdasco respectively. If anything, Rafa upset the figures by defeating both Djokovic at Queen's and then Federer at Wimbledon - but we're only talking a 1%-2% difference. Check out the facts for yourself :-

https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/winning-titles-its-all-between-the-ears-180408.html

Who's Getting Past Their Sell-By Dates?

Way back last year we were discussing the perfect age for a tennis player. Trouble is, Roger Federer is now past it! On August 8th the world No.1 turns 27 and that, in tennis terms, is considered past your prime. Look at his rivals - Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet - these guys are all 21,22, 23. It's amazing how just a few years of age makes a huge difference, statistically, in a player's chances of winning. Look at the figures and you'll see why.

https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/the-perfect-age-for-a-tennis-p-1-041007.html

Watch Out For The Early Losers!

Players who duck out early of the big tournaments tend to do very well in the following week's events. Whilst others are still playing in the heat of Grand Slam battle, these guys are resting and preparing for the next tournaments. We've seen it earlier this year and this time around in Gstaad, Newport, Bastad and Stuttgart don't be surprised to see those guys who took the early bath at SW19 come out on top.

https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/truths-lies-and-tennis-statist/grand-slams-taking-an-early-ba-7-050907.html

Do take the opportunity for a bit of revision. There's no harm at all in going back over previous articles and reminding yourself of what lessons there are to be learned from our earlier discussions. Betting is a constant struggle between good habits and bad habits. Don't be lazy and bet with your heart, spend a little time, bet with your head and the results will speak for themselves.

And, to close, a return to our usual 'Who's Hot and Who's Not' table for last month on the ATP Tour. Several players increased their standings during the last month, one or two did themselves no favours at all. Here's just a guide to who caught our eye in the month of June.

So, remember to heed the lessons we've highlighted above and ensure that when you're on Betfair it's YOU who's making the money!! There's still a host of great action to come this year and now with Wimbledon out of the way we begin the build up to the US Open - is Federer washed up? Can Nadal win a Slam on hard courts? What about Djokovic or Murray?

It's going to fun ... and it's going to be profitable if you stick right here.

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