Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 08 June 2008 /

Matthew Walton has the statistics you need to know before betting on tennis during the grass season

Despite a stop-off in Sopot (Poland) the ATP Tour heads out of Paris and takes a trip down the road less travelled for the next month. It's time for the grass court season.

No sooner have the players cleaned the clay out of their shoes than they're heading for the lush pastures of Nottingham, Halle, s'Hertogenbosch and London (Queen's and Wimbledon) for an intense period of serve-volley action on the lawns of Northern Europe.

By far the most specialised of surfaces, the tour takes in just these five grass events (plus a later tournament in Rhode Island) to test the versatility of players to the maximum.

To preview this mini-season (as we have done previously with the clay court swing and the early hard court events) we've put together a few facts and figures about this strange surface - grass. A few pointers to help you sort out the live runners from the also rans.

The table below illustrates one of the fundamentals to all tennis betting, and a topic we all understand well, the knowledge of which players can perform on which particular surface. Take a look at the top 50 players in the current world rankings as we discover who likes grass and who doesn't :-

As you can see, there is a win/loss percentage for each player on all surfaces throughout their career. This is compared to their win/loss percentage on grass alone. And the key to our analysis is the difference between the two.

If the figure is markedly higher on grass then this guy is a serious contender (and, of course, vice-versa - if it's much lower then do beware).

Hence we see Roger Federer with figures of 80% and 86%. That's a handy (+6%) rating. Lleyton Hewitt is the same (+6%) along with David Nalbandian and Marcos Baghdatis. It follows that Andy Roddick (+8%), Richard Gasquet (+11%), Tomas Berdych (+12%), Ivo Karlovic (+13%) and Mario Ancic (+14%) must all be respected on grass.

However, a word to the wise, some players like Tsonga (+10%), Llodra (+14%) and Mahut (+27%) haven't played a vast amount of matches on the surface so using their percentages, in isolation, can be misleading. Do look a little deeper if you get the chance as the number of matches played is important because it can produce artificial percentages if the number is low.

But flip this around and we see Rafael Nadal (-7%), David Ferrer (-14%), Carlos Moya (-19%), Juan Ignacio Chela (-28%) and Stanislas Wawrinka (-32%). All these players have far inferior records on grass than overall, a clear sign they should be treated with caution. They perform markedly worse on grass than their general level of form and, as such, their price should reflect this - but do they always? No.

Some players score 0% on grass - Almagro, Monaco, Darcis, Starace and Acasuso - simply because they've never won on the surface (although no player has lost more than seven times on grass - Jose Acasuso).

You can then apply these findings to the table of results below. Strange how you see (a) the same players recurring over and over again and (b) these players often have a decent (+) rating.

What we have is a specialist surface rewarding those players who develop a specialist ability to cope with its unique characteristics. Isolate the players who are best suited to grass and you're well on your way to successful betting.

You can also supplement these two tables with further research into other areas of related playing statistics. For example, grass court tennis puts a great emphasis on serve. And who are the leading exponents of this art?

No.1 for aces this year is Ivo Karlovic, No.1 for service games won (in percentage terms) is Andy Roddick. Both have positive overall/grass ratings - Roddick (+8) and Karlovic (+13) - and both feature prominently in the results table as well.

This isn't coincidental, this is simple 'horses for courses' betting and there are plenty of statistics on the net to aid your research into this subject.

But before you back these guys off the boards (and lay the clay courters for all you're worth) do bear in mind that certain players do buck the trend. Rafael Nadal is improving on grass all the time. Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco and Philipp Kohlschreiber all have positive ratings as well. It's not all black and white, or green and white for that matter.

Similarly, some players who you might expect to do well on grass - Robin Soderling (-4%), James Blake (-6%), Paul-Henri Mathieu (-9%), Ivan Ljubicic (-10%), Sam Querrey (-24%) - have so far failed to make any real impact on this surface.

There is no doubt that the speed of the courts and the general style of play of the modern players is making grass more inclusive than it was some five or 10 years ago. Still, the fact remains this surface has its own 'eco-system' of form. You have to check many pre-conceptions at the door when you enter Queen's and Halle this coming week.

But that's not to say you can't win money. Far from it. With the information provided here there's no excuse for failing to use Betfair to your considerable advantage - make sure you get the rub of the green stuff!

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