Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 04 February 2009 /

The professional tennis schedule is the most gruelling of any major world sport - bad news for the players perhaps but definitely a good thing for punters. And this week there's no excuse for not making a profit, says Matthew Walton.

Thankfully, for those of us who can't go a week without some form of tennis betting, there is no respite for the players who have just entertained us so richly at the first Grand Slam of the year.

Barely 24 hours after the last point was won Down Under, the first serve was being sent down in Johannesburg, Vina Del Mar and Zagreb.

It's a relentless, punishing schedule, a test of physical and mental fortitude, the most gruelling world schedule in any major sport. Great ... isn't it!

And, as it happens, these particular events are very good for betting purposes. Probably better than most of the other run-of-the-mill tournaments which we find on the calendar throughout the year. Why? Well, that's what we aim to show you here. How these specific events have the ability to banish your Melbourne melancholy and get your betting account moving forward again.

The reason being, most tournaments have one characteristic which provides a starting point for their study - players have a similar profile in terms of age or nationality, seeding or form, career history or price and so on. And it's this common denominator which helps us form students unravel the markets, select our trades and make our profits.

Thing is with this week's tournaments there's not one, not two, not even three patterns which we can illustrate in respect of these events. In all, there's up to five different trends which we can cross-reference in order to locate this week's winners - there really is no excuse for not making any money this week on Betfair in either South Africa, Chile or Croatia!!

Early Australian Open Exit

We've been looking through the record books, something we always recommend you do yourselves, and the evidence is there for all to see.

For example, taking just the last five years as typical of this phenomenon, we have seen three tournaments played each year in the week after the action finishes in Australia. That's a sample group of 15 events.

Of these 15 events, dating back to 2004, we see the respective winners suffered the following defeats - R1 (8 times), R2 (1), R3 (2), R4 (1) and the QF's (2). There was also one non-runner (Kei Nishikori 2008).

That's makes for 12 of 15 winners (80%) or a [1.25] chance that any of this week's winners didn't make the second week in Melbourne. For sure, many of those who made it to round four and beyond won't be playing this week, but those who are should be treated with some caution.

Lack Of Big Name Winners

Following on from this point we find that most winners in the week after a Grand Slam come from outside the top ten, even the top twenty, of the world rankings.

Again, due acknowledgement has to be made of the fact that many won't be in action this week and a couple of players (such as Andy Murray in Marseille 2008 and Andy Roddick in San Jose 2004) have bucked the trend.

However, by and large, we're looking at solid rather than spectacular performers. Guys who we know well from the tour but who tend to fit into that middle range of the rankings, around about 20-50. That sort of range.

Lack Of Outsiders

As always, be careful that you don't go off the other end of the scale, trying to unearth some fancy-priced winner at [201.00] that just isn't there.

Take the recent winners in Vina Del Mar - Fernando Gonzalez (2004 & 2008), Luis Horna (2007), Jose Acasuso (2006) and Gaston Gaudio (2005). All familiar names, none of them off the scale in terms of price.

Same applies, for the most part, in Europe. We've seen three different events follow the Australian Open in recent years but, whatever the tournament, the winners have been Andy Murray (2008), Marcos Baghdatis (2007), Ivan Ljubicic (2006), Robin Soderling (2005) and Antony Dupuis (2004).

Naturally, the eye is drawn to Dupuis but the Frenchman is the only one who could be classed as an 'outsider'.

In the States, the roll of honour reads Kei Nishikori (2008), Xavier Malisse (2005 & 2007), Tommy Haas (2006) and Andy Roddick (2004). Again, just one, Nishikori is the skinner.

That's a mere two winners at big odds from a total of 15 which would suggest that the place to look for this week's winners is nearer the top of the market than the bottom.

Success Of the Seeds

During this five year sample period the winners have been seeded 13 times. From a possible 15 players that's a 87% strike rate for the top players, making for odds of around [1.15] that a seed lifts the trophy come Sunday.

Looking a little further, the number one to number four seeds have won 10 out of 15 titles. That makes for a 66% chance or odds of [1.50] that a top seed prevails in this week's action.

Only Nishikori and Dupuis won their titles without being seeded.

Winning Experience

It also follows that players who historically do well this week have already been successful in the past.

Whether it's adapting from one time zone to another, quickly re-focusing after a big event or having better off-season preparation, the reason is immaterial but the statistics tell us that every winner in Vina Del Mar had won a tournament prior to their success in Chile. Also, in both America and Europe the ratio was four out of five - as previous winners clearly hold sway.

Just because it's early in the season or we're in a new part of the world and new talent is emerging, doesn't mean you should desert the formbook.

Simply put, previous winning experience counts for a heck of a lot in these events.

What we have, therefore, are a number of patterns which create an indenti-kit picture of the most likely winners this week. The men to look at (i) lost early in Australia (ii) aren't in the top 10 of the world rankings (iii) are in the top half of the market (iv) are seeded (v) have won a tournament before.

Apply this logic to this week's events and the closest matches we find are Ivo Karlovic (5.00) in Zagreb, David Ferrer [7.0] in Johannesburg and Juan Monaco [8.0].

All, statistically, should go well this week. And all deserve your closest attention on Betfair. Just because it's not a Grand Slam week, doesn't mean there's no profits to be made!!

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