Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 05 December 2008 /

Magical" Matthew Walton tells us about the world's top players who didn't win on tour in 2008 and separates the wheat from the chaff: those that won't win next year (and possibly won't win again) and those who will return to winning ways in 2009...

The end of the tennis season has brought with it a host of finalised statistical data for the tour in 2008. Data which we can use to our benefit when the new campaign begins at the start of January.

Already we've studied this information to assess the Fab Four of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray, forecasting how they will fare in 2009 (read article here). We've also used these findings to discuss the tour's lesser lights, posing the question as to who will make their mark during the next 12 months (read article here).

Here we turn our attention to 2008's near misses - those players who failed to win a title during the past 11 months - examining their overall performance figures so as to determine whether 2009 will prove to be a time of success or failure, delight or despair.

To begin with we need to determine our study group. After all, in 2008 the 66 main tour titles were spread amongst just 33 different players ... which leaves roughly 1,900 other professionals scratching around for a win this past year! As such, we're looking primarily at the top 50 of the world rankings, with a passing comment about several others within the list of the top 100 players.

Of the world's leading 50 professionals in 2008, 27 won titles (combining for a total haul of 60 titles between them) whilst 23 players failed to win a single trophy.

As far as the rankings are concerned, the leading players to miss out were James Blake (ranked No.10), Stanislas Wawrinka (13), Gael Monfils (14) and Igor Andreev (19).

Next up were Fish (24), Gasquet (25), Stepanek (27) and Safin (29) followed in the rankings by Lopez (30), Mathieu (31), Schuettler (33), Melzer (34), Seppi (35), Ancic (36), Nieminen (37) and Kiefer (38).

The final group includes Bolelli (41), Moya (42), Benneteau (43), Ljubicic (44), Monaco (46), Acasuso (48) and finally Tipsarevic (49).

Our study of these players took the form of a four-fold examination of various criteria concerning their seasonal and career to date performances - all aimed at ascertaining which of these players had a shortage of luck in 2008 and which players, generally, can be said to have a shortage of ability (in this, or any other, year).

Firstly, we noted their best showings of the year - to see who was at least getting close to winning.

Here we found Blake, Fish, Moya, Benneteau and Juan Monaco all with two runners-up spots to their credit. Thereafter, every other player had made at least one final (albeit to lose) except Rainer Schuettler (two SF's), Andreas Seppi (one SF) and Janko Tipsarevic (four QF's). Only those three players hadn't even got to within a match of registering a tournament success in 2008.

Secondly, we looked at their career records - how many had previously won tournaments?

In this respect, Moya (20 titles), Safin (15), Blake (10) and Ljubicic (8) were established multiple winners. However, players of more note were Wawrinka, Monfils, Lopez, Melzer and Nieminen (just one career win apiece) as well as Seppi, Bolelli, Benneteau and Tipsarevic (all four have never won an ATP title).
The third area, linked to the previous variable, was the date of a player's last tournament success. Did they display the traits of a serial loser?

Naturally, the four players mentioned in the previous example - Seppi, Bolelli, Benneteau & Tipsarevic - would have no data to forward but Nicolas Kiefer (last win in 2000), Rainer Schuettler (3003), Feliciano Lopez (2004) and Marat Safin (2005) were clearly in danger of losing the winning habit.

On the other hand we found Blake, Gasquet, Stepanek, Mathieu, Moya, Ljubicic and Monaco as the only seven players to have won a title in 2007. These guys clearly still remain competitive on tour.

Fourth and final test was that of a player's win-loss record on tour in 2008. Were they showing signs of improvement or decline?

In general terms, a success rate in matches of 60% or higher will maintain and improve a player's ranking. From 50%-60% and he'll stay level, at best, whilst anything below 50% will see a ranking steadily fall.

The players of most interest here are the top performers - Blake (66%), Ancic (66%), Wawrinka (64%) and Monfils (63%) - and those at the bottom of the class such as Bolelli (49%), Schuettler (47%) and Nieminen (47%). The rest are all in that 50%-60% bracket, suggesting they could go either way.

When we put all these findings together we get a much better picture of which players should win again in 2009 and who could very well struggle.

For example, James Blake simply has to win again next year. Twice runner-up in 2008, 10 career titles, last won in 2007 and a win-loss in 2008 of 66%. The guy was just unlucky.

Similar story for Gasquet, Monaco, Mathieu and probably Radek Stepanek. All these guys you should note in 2009.

Players to approach with caution would be the Italian pair of Seppi and Bolelli, Rainer Schuettler and Janko Tipsarevic. Guys like Safin, Kiefer and Julien Benneteau would also come with a health warning. The rest all retain potential but bets need to be price dependent.

And just to open out the discussion to the top 100 players you find Juan Carlos Ferrero, Lleyton Hewitt, Guillermo Canas, Tommy Haas and Marcos Baghdatis all trophyless in 2008.

This was Hewitt's first barren year since 1997! Ferrero now hasn't won since 2003. Haas and Canas are now the wrong side of 30 ... but Baghdatis should win again when fully fit.

Overall, it's obvious that certain players will miss out from time to time. There are only so many titles to go around. The key to making money on Betfair is to know when to stop backing certain players and when to keep faith in their ability (despite a poor year).

In this respect our study should give you a good idea of who's heading for more titles in 2009 and which players may well have kissed their last trophy!

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: