Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Editor / 25 March 2009 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton crunches the numbers to find out who statistically has the best chance of winning a three-set match when it goes to the deciding set. Read on, as the answer is an interesting one and a good opportunity to make money.

When it comes to match betting, there's nothing better than seeing your player starting well, breaking serve early and going on to take the first set.

Almost immediately their price tumbles on Betfair. At the start of the match, some 40 minutes or so earlier, they were [2.0] but now, a set to the good, they trade at [1.25] and falling.

You may not have the winnings in your account just yet ... but surely they aren't too far away. Anyway, if you wish, you can even hedge your position so as to guarantee a return whatever the outcome.

Another break of serve for your player in the second set and, depending upon the timing of that break, it's anything from [1.10] heading down to [1.05] and then [1.03] - basically, the money's as good as yours.

They serve out the match 6-3 6-4. Job done in little over an hour.

That's a good day - and we all have them (admittedly maybe not as often as we would like).

But here's two other, all-too-familiar, match betting scenarios for you to consider :-

Scenario A - your player does indeed win the first set. It's on serve until 4-3, they break for 5-3 and then hold serve themselves to take the lead. As above, their price plummets and you're already thinking of the next bet on which to play up your winnings.

However, like yourself, your chosen player is already thinking of the next round, takes their foot off the gas for all of 5 minutes early in the second set, loses their serve, can't break back and 'hey presto' its one set-all.

Scenario B - in classic style your man loses the toss at the start of the match and has to serve the first game. A double fault, just one first serve goes in, one mis-hit forehand and they drop serve. Their opponent holds for 2-0 and then maintains that lead en route to taking the first set.

However, this time it's different. Your player puts that early blip of the first set behind them, their serve gets better, they even force the odd break point. It goes to a second set tie-breaker, your player takes it 7-4 and 'hey presto' its one set-all.

So, simple question, who's your money on to win the match in each respective scenario?

And, just to make it even easier, we're not going to include any external factors. No head-to-head form or possible injury problems, we're not concerned with the duration of their previous games or a lack of match practice, there's no consideration of the player's prowess on the surface or their general stomach for a fight when the pressure is on.

Just call it as you see it.

And you also won't get much help from the odds on Betfair. It was pretty much [2.0] each of two at the start of the match ... and now it's one set-all you'll find that the market has pretty much corrected itself. As one player drifts from [1.25] to [2.0] so the other shortens from [4.5] back to [2.0].

What do you think?

You see, this is a question we set about answering because many punters might feel that it is indeed a 50/50 match at this point. There for the taking by either player.

So, instead of who will win, think of it this way - who would you rather be on? The guy in Scenario A who clearly showed at the start of the match that he was the dominant player but simply lost concentration for a moment early in the second set. Or the player in Scenario B who just got off to a slow start but has now found his game and levelled the match.

Well, to fully investigate this very point, what we did was look through all the tournaments played this year on the ATP Tour and studied the 201 matches in those 18 events which went to a third set.

What we found was the following (the first figure is the number of players who won the match by going W-L-W in the three sets, the second figure is those who won the match with a set result which went L-W-W).

In the first round of events up to the Australian Open the findings were Qatar (3/5), Brisbane (2/10), Chennai (3/3), Sydney (4/2) and Auckland (5/7). Thereafter the tour headed off to Vina Del Mar (4/2), Johannesburg (1/4), Zagreb (7/6), Costa Do Sauipe (6/6), San Jose (3/7) and Rotterdam (7/7).

Finally, it was Buenos Aires (6/7), Memphis (3/5), Marseille (7/7), Acapulco (8/3), Delray Beach (2/4), Dubai (4/12) and the recent Masters Series event at Indian Wells (12/17).

That comes to a total of 87 matches where the player who won the first set, lost the second but then recovered to win the third (Scenario A) but 114 occasions when the player who lost the first set bounced back to win the next two, and with them the match (Scenario B).

Put that in percentage terms and it's 43% compared to 57% or, translated into Betfair odds, [2.30] compared to [1.76].

Hands up, therefore, if you thought anything other the player highlighted in Scenario B.

But what does this exercise tell us? Well, first and foremost it illustrates just how important momentum is in the game of tennis. You do seem, statistically, to be much better off when your player is the one who loses the first set but then fights back to win the second. You're further into the match, the form has settled down, the end result is more easily predicted.

Secondly, as a casual observer of any match (without an interest from the start of proceedings) you can get involved at this stage with a fair degree of data suggesting that your money is best placed on one player as opposed to the other. That is, the one who wins the second set.

Thirdly, and possibly of most interest in terms of boosting your Betfair returns, if you find an instance where a player loses the first set 6-4 but then breaks, say, for 4-2 in the second set ... you should back him to win the match immediately - if you feel he's capable of serving out the set. Why? Because come the end of that set, at one set-all, it's back to near [2.0] each of two. At least at 4-6 4-2 you're still going to find your man shortening in from [4.5] and so you will get a better price. Certainly bigger than [2.0] when it's all-square.

It's an interesting discussion and one which you can of course widen by adding in factors such as previous head-to-head form, initial match odds, ability, fatigue and all those other factors which go to determine a match bet winner.

What we've done here though is to keep it simple and highlight just one way in which, aimed with the right information, you can jump one step ahead of your fellow Betfair traders and by doing so make yourself a little extra profit at their expense.

The right strategy is important. It can save you time and make you money!

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