Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 19 December 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton talks us through the dos and don'ts of betting on tennis outright markets on Betfair.

We've already looked at the factors which come into play with match betting (read article here) and provided some key areas of study which you, as a serious Betfair backer, should acknowledge, understand and, hopefully, employ in your future betting.

Here, we turn our attention to outright betting. An area which has many similarities to match-based scenarios but enough fundamental differences to make it a suitable discussion in its own right.

Again, we provide a ten point checklist to raise your 2009 betting to a new level!

1.The Draw

Of paramount importance - you shouldn't really have an outright bet before you know the draw as this provides a readymade blueprint for success. Print it out and as you progress in your tournament research map out your winners and losers for each match and forecast the eventual outcome. Create a worst case-scenario and best-case scenario for your fancied players.

Also, don't see a tournament as a 32, 64 or 128 runner field. This is no golf tournament. It's an event of four quarters of 8, 16 or 32 players. Dissect the field into bite-sized chunks and view each quarter as a separate mini-tournament.

2.Tournament History

Certain players repeatedly do well in certain tournaments. The reasons for this can be many and various - court conditions, location, traditional weakness of the event, time of the year, tournament sponsors - but it's always important to spot those players who have made at least two QF's in the last three years. If they've gone further, so much the better, but players do focus on certain tournaments and frame their schedules around competitions where they expect to do well.

3. Head-To-Heads

Integral to your view of the draw is how you see each individual match being settled. This study of all possible match-ups, round-on-round, will give you a much better handle on which players will represent the most likely participants in the latter stages. Also, don't simply discount a player because he might face a guy in the SF's who he trails 1:6 in previous encounters. That other player might not make the SF's ... or you might even have the chance to do a little trading further down the line.

4. Player Career History

Ask yourself pertinent questions as to whether your chosen player has won before on tour (if so, how often, when and on what surface), made at least one tour final or won on the Challenger Tour. Ideally you want to be backing somebody with a realistic chance of success, who has preferably won before. There are numerous bridesmaids, chokers and under-achievers on tour - you should only back them fully aware of their faults and compensated with a big price!

5. Ranking Points

As important for outright betting as match betting. Players who do well in a tournament need to repeat their efforts the following year so as to maintain their year-on-year ranking. This fact may not guarantee repeat success but you can generally be sure that your bet will be trying their utmost ... and that little extra incentive can make all the difference. Players who do well one year should always be noted when competing in the same event the following year.

6. Nationality

The performance of some players is often markedly improved by an event being staged in their homeland. For sure, there are those who buckle under the pressure of home expectation but others do rise to the occasion. Of particular note are the players from France, Spain, Argentina and Russia - always ones to note when playing in their own backyard.

7. Age / Defending champions

Minor considerations but still worthy of a mention. In 2008 only 2 of 66 events (3%) were won by players above the age of 27. A player's performance significantly declines after the years 25/26/27.

Likewise in 2008 only 9 of 66 tournaments (13%) were won by the previous year's champion - and that included Nadal (3) and Federer (2). Although this factor provides a counter-point to No.2 and No.5 it flags up the fact that players, purely on the statistics, struggle to retain their crowns.

8. Seeding

Like the features of age, nationality and tournament history, this is one of the lesser considerations - but an important one none the less. Some events are notorious for being seed-unfriendly (e.g. Rhode Island, last No.1 seed to win was back in 1976) others cater more for the big-hitters (e.g. Australian Open, seeded winner every year since 1976). Seedings have a direct link to the draw, to the odds and to the winners ... but in some tournaments more than others. Don't blindly back No.1 seeds but, similarly, don't write off a player just because he's unseeded.

9. Schedule

Life on the main ATP Tour can be a tough slog. Players frequently traverse the globe, often on a weekly basis. It pays to be mindful of guys who (i) have played for three or more weeks on the spin (ii) who played on/in a different continent/time zone the week before and (iii) strangely, you might think, those who won the week before. All these considerations can reduce a player's energy, focus and performance. Just as some can be 'under-done' with little recent court time, others can be overly-fatigued after a punishing schedule.

10. Price

Key to any bet, naturally. The assessment of whether an outright price is 'value' or not will come after due consideration of your findings in the above studies. One policy is to overlay your mapping out of the tournament with estimated prices for each potential match, then calculate the accumulator and that will give you a rough guide as to what you should be looking to take on Betfair.

As with our discussion of match betting, a regular reference to these various areas of study will create a more solid foundation for your betting. We're trying here to be logical, structured and consistent - features which should make your betting more profitable in the long-run.

Over time you can determine for yourself which points are the important areas of research and which are the more peripheral concerns, deserving of just a brief glance.

By adopting at least some of these methods you should find that 2009 is a much better year for your outright tennis betting.

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