Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 26 October 2007 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks at who the side with and who to oppose in the penalty shoot-outs of tennis

Playing the big points well. That's the key to success at the highest level. It's all very well creating opportunities, it's taking them which sorts the men from the boys - the Federer's from the Fedorenko's.

Converting break points, and saving break points, is one area for study which we will return to another time, in this piece we focus on another key component of the modern game -tie-breaks. Love them or hate them, since 1979 when they were brought into the game on a full-time basis, they have influenced the outcome of many a match.

To some they're a 50/50 call. You hope to win them, feel hard done by if you lose them. If there's two in a match, woe betide it if both go against you.

And there's good logic for this. If two players are neck-and-neck through a set to reach 6-6 the natural assumption would be they're both playing to a roughly similar standard and the ensuing tie-break could easily go either way. It's a toss of a coin. Even money each of two. Right?

Wrong.

You might believe everybody has a near 50% success/loss rate in tie-breaks. Or you might think it's the best players who have the best records. After all, they are the best players so it stands to reason they should do well, better than the rest at least.

But if you're involved in a match which is 6-6 - which way should you be looking on the exchanges? Who are the players to back? Who should you lay?

We studied the career tie-break records of the top 25 players in the world plus an arbitrary selection from players ranked between 75-200. Here's what we found out :-

(1) Novak Djokovic - won 57/lost 21 - 73%
(2) Roger Federer - 203/106 - 65%
(3) Andy Roddick - 189/112 - 62%
(4) Andy Murray - 29/19 - 60%
(5) Marcos Baghdatis - 43/29 - 59%

No surprise, in some respects, to see arguably the best two players in the world ranked 1 and 2 in this category. They win the big points. But there's no half measures involved, Djokovic wins pretty much 3 out of every 4 tie-breaks and Federer still manages a mighty respectable 2 out of 3.

We find the next bunch of players are more or less what you would expect. In this respect they average just a little better than 50%. Not a lot but enough to keep them ahead of the chasing pack.

Hence we have Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Carlos Moya all on 57%, Rafael Nadal on maybe a surprisingly low 56% and James Blake, Guillermo Canas and Tommy Haas on 55%.

That covers the top 11 players in the field. The next few - Youzhny, Nalbandian, Hewitt, Mathieu, Robredo, Karlovic, Davydenko, Berdych - have a winning percentage between 54% and 51%.

The final group - Ljubicic, Chela, Ferrer, Gasquet and Monaco - vary from 50% down to Monaco at a miserable 38%.

It's interesting to note a couple of things from these findings. No surprise that Richard Gasquet, a noted under-achiever and 'dodgepot' in our book, has a lousy 46% win ratio in tie-breaks. However, Ivo Karlovic, Mr. Tie-Break himself, has only got a 51% conversion rate which is surprising given how much practice he gets with them!

Similarly, Nadal's figure at 56% seems low for a battler of his calibre (like Hewitt at 53%) whereas Marcos Baghdatis gets a very high rating despite not being that prominent in the ATP Rankings.

As a comparison we looked at a few random players further down the listings. Michael Llodra (No.75) has a 35% conversion rate, Igor Kunitsyn (No.100) is 60% but from only 30 examples, Fernando Vicente (No.150) is 47% and Daniele Bracciali (No.200) is at 48%.

In short, there is a fine line between success and failure. What these figures show is that a few percentage points here and there will make a big difference over a career. It's the bookies' margin, the house edge which builds up gradually over time.

These statistics can be very useful when backing in-play on the exchanges. You can tell who to side with, who to oppose. Added to further factors we have previously discussed (seeding, nationality, losing first sets etc) they provide another important element in an accurate betting photo-fit of each player.

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