Ok Computer: Why isn't Nadal ranked number one in the world?

Wonderful World of Tennis / Barry Millns / 10 July 2008 / 1

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Boris Becker asks the straightforward question of why having won the French Open and Wimbledon, Rafael Nadal isn't the number one ranked player in the world. Barry Millns explains all and tells us what Rafa has to do to get to the top of the rankings.

As Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and the rest of us reflect on last Sunday's sensational Wimbledon final there is now a widespread feeling that the ATP rankings have some catching up to do. Although Federer is still on top of the pile, some 545 points ahead of Nadal, his long run as world No.1, like his five-year reign at the All England Club, could be about to end.

Boris Becker was in no doubt after witnessing what many have described as the 'greatest ever' match that it was a changing of the guard. The German believes that whoever wins the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year is the best player in the world and with Nadal becoming the first person to do so since Bjorn Borg in 1980, Becker thinks it is only a matter of time before the Spaniard knocks Federer of that perch as well.

It is amazing to think that less than four months ago, as the men's tour headed into the Miami Masters Series, we were talking about the possibility of Nadal (who had not won a title since July 2007) slipping down to No.3 behind Novak Djokovic. Having won the Australian Open and then Indian Wells, the young Serb was just 425 points behind Nadal and apparently closing fast, but now the gulf between them has widened to 1,110 points.

Since Miami, where Nadal reached the final long after Djokovic had lost in the second round, the Spaniard has won six of the seven tournaments he has played. Three of those - Hamburg, Roland Garros and Queen's - have included wins over Djokovic.

So, far from being under threat himself, Nadal is now breathing down Federer's neck with a vengeance. It is 155 weeks and counting since the Spaniard first ranked at No.2 and while Federer (currently trading at [1.68] to win no grand slams this year) has now ranked a record 232 consecutive weeks at No. 1, the chances of him finishing 2008 as the world's best player for the fifth straight year seem far slimmer than they did at the start of it.

Consequently, what we all now want to see is how Federer responds to such a reverse and whether Nadal (currently trading as the favourite at [1.31] to end the season ranked world No.1) can continue to play through the second half of the year as well as he did in the first, something which historically he has been unable to do.

Nadal could seize the No. 1 ranking early next month at the conclusion of the Masters Series tournament in Cincinnati. But due to a calendar shift this season to accommodate the Olympic Games, any change at the top is unlikely to happen before August 18, a fortnight after Cincinnati.

Last year's Masters Series tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati were played two weeks later than they will be played this year. Because points earned by players count towards their rankings for 52 weeks, the 850 points Federer earned last year by reaching the Canada final and winning the Cincinnati title will continue to count towards his ranking during the same tournaments in 2008.

Normally a player's points drop off their ranking total when they compete at the same event the following year, but come August 18, those 850 points will no longer count towards Federer's ranking. By then Nadal will have dropped a total of 480 points he gained last year in Stuttgart (not defending title this week), Canada and Cincinnati - in other words if they both reach the same round in the next two Masters Series, Nadal will be only 175 points adrift.

Bearing in mind that the difference between winning a Masters Series title and finishing runner-up is 150 points, their performances in Toronto and Cincinnati, will determine who will be the No.1 and top seed at the Olympic Games (which also award rankings points) and the US Open.

Even if Federer is still ahead by the time they reach Flushing Meadows, he will do well to leave New York still ranked No.1. The Swiss has 1,000 points to defend after winning his fourth consecutive title there last year, whereas Nadal has just 150 points to defend having lost in the fourth round.

As Rafa said, looking ahead, "If I meet Roger on hard courts, it's going to be very good news because we can meet only in the finals."

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Shoukei | 11 July 2008

Great information. Thanks.