Wonderful World of Tennis / Matthew Walton / 16 May 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton discusses how certain matches are well-suited for in-running bets ... and why some games offer less live betting opportunities

In many of our articles we look at betting statistics and strategies which can be studied and applied before matches, or tournaments, take place. Sometimes that's a matter of minutes, often a few hours or possibly, on rare occasions, it's several days before the 'off'.

And, as we know, this method of betting gives us plenty of time in which to study the form, analyse the data and plan our bets. All done in a leisurely fashion. There's no split second decisions to be made, no spur of the moment reactions (or over-reactions) to be dealt with. We are simply directed by whichever way our studies point us - whether driven by surface, head-to-heads, age, nationality, past tournament performance and so on.

However, aside from this 'ante-post' approach, we must also consider the in-running option on Betfair.

Why? Because it's an area which can offer an even greater amount of bets, and provide an even greater amount of profit, to the clued-up backer. The various conventional markets and methods of betting which are currently at our disposal are all well and good but betting on the action live, as it happens, can be every bit as lucrative. If not more so.

Mind you, this isn't to say that all the analysis and study which we have recommended in earlier articles is now to be ignored. Not a bit of it. Even before entering the fray, prior to hitting the in-running markets, the informed backer should always acquaint themselves with at least some rudiments of the form. This will save time, help to make better decisions and, in the long run, surely make more money.

But one thing to note is that such preparation won't always point to a match being a 'live' contender for in-running play. Some matches are better suited than others to this pursuit.

And to illustrate this point we looked at two matches which took place in Hamburg during their Masters Series event. Both were played on the same day but both had markedly different potential for in-running trades, as we're about to find out.

As you can see, there was little encouragement for backers of Soderling in the head-to-heads and even though Federer's form in 2008 had been patchy (to say the least) he boasted better clay form than the Swede and a very good track record here in Germany.

In short, once the world No.1 got his head in front there seemed no chance of the match turning. Yes, Soderling could have got his nose in front early to make a game of it but there was nothing to suggest he would - of the 11 previous sets he'd played against Federer, the Swede had taken just one.

What we find is these matches are much better approached from an 'ante-post' perspective - i.e. back the likes of Federer before the match starts. They will only shorten in the betting, the markets won't be volatile and the options for in-runnning plays will be fairly limited.

The 'M&S' affair. Moya against Safin was always likely to be a fascinating match.

Both players are well-renowned flakes and either was just as likely as the other to have a poor day at the office. Safin has been on the slide for a few years now but Moya has been similarly prone to the occasional baffling loss to lesser opponents. Their head-to-heads stood at 3:3, both had beaten the other on clay, and Safin, the lesser ranked player, had better current form to offset any view that Moya was the dominant force.

So although the pre-match market had this down in the Russian's favour, this was misleading and should have been the first call to action for the sharp-eyed trader. This match was more of a 50/50 call and so from these initial odds the likelihood of in-running plays was high.

Moya took over the mantle of favourite in this match after just one game(!) even though he started as the clear underdog. That position only grew stronger as he progressed through the first set courtesy of a double-break.

The Spaniard then went a break up in the second set and the market decreed the match was over. Plenty of money was traded on Moya at less than [1.10] (1.10). However, Safin broke back, held on for a tie-break and levelled the match by taking it 7-3.

All of a sudden Safin is now the favourite for the match again!

Next thing, Moya simply holds serve at the start of the third set and he regains favouritism. He then breaks Safin in the next game to go 2-0 up and from there never loses his momentum as he powers to a 6-2 6-7 6-1 victory.

Moya had gone from clear underdog to shoo-in favourite, back out to underdog and then back to being the jolly before he won at a canter. By the same token, the 'Yo-Yo Market' had seen Safin's price bounce all over the place, winner one moment, loser the next.

In terms of our discussion, this match had classic characteristics written all over it. Both players had more than a little previous in this department, had a close fought head-to-head rivalry and had blown hot and cold throughout their careers. Even the surface, clay, led to a more even contest.

So what we have is two contrasting matches. The Federer v Soderling match was an open and shut case but Moya v Safin had angles right through its 147 minute running time.

To be successful, you can't watch every single match. You have to be selective. Hence, a method of prior analysis, which determines which games are good and which ones are bad for in-running plays, WILL save you time and WILL make you money. Look for those matches where upsets could occur, where prices seem out of line and where either player has a genuine chance of victory. These games will give some great in-running opportunities.

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