Wonderful World of Tennis / Matthew Walton / 11 July 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton crunches the numbers as usual, this time to tell us who we should be backing in the upcoming weeks as the tour moves to the hard courts of North America.

In previous articles we've talked about the tennis calendar being, in reality, a sequence of mini-seasons placed one after another. We start Down Under in January and then go through all points of the compass before ending up in China some 10 months later.

So far we have visited South America (Clay), USA (Indoor), Europe (Indoor), USA (Outdoor), Europe (Clay), Europe (Grass) and now, post Wimbledon, we splinter into two main areas, a low-key return to clay in Europe or a switch to the outdoor hard courts of North America.

And, lest we forget, we also have the dubious delights of the Olympics to consider. Surely a monstrous waste of time in the professional age ... can you name the reigning gold medallist of the men's singles?

Anyway, ignoring the frippery of Beijing, the build up to the US Open starts right here!!

And it should be a fascinating run. The victory of Nadal at Wimbledon has put an almighty cat amongst the pigeons and questions never before considered now have to be asked - Will Federer fail to beat the Sampras record? Can Nadal win a Slam on hard courts? Actually, will Nadal beat Federer to a full-house of Grand Slam titles?

That last point was previously unheard of but what price now for Nadal to land the US and Australian Opens before Roger wins in Paris? A point of much debate anyway, for now, let's focus on the build up to the US Open (starting August 25th).

The table below illustrates the tournament results for the last five years and provides some useful insights into what we can expect over the next six weeks.

Multiple Winners

During the last five years we've seen only one player, Andy Roddick, win more than one event in any one year - and that was back in 2003.

Multiple Finalists (or better)

We have seen players reach more than one final in any one year (win or lose). These are Roger Federer and James Blake (2007), Andy Roddick (2006), Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick and James Blake (2005), Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt (2004) and just Andy Roddick (2003).

Multiple QF's (or better)

Plenty of these. Roddick, Federer, Stepanek, Blake and Karlovic (2007), Roddick, Gonzalez, Murray, Tursunov and Malisse (2006), Ginepri, Rusedski, Agassi and Blake (2005), Roddick, Kiefer and Hewitt (2004) and finally Roddick and Schuettler (2003).

Most Frequent Winners
During this period we have seen Andy Roddick (7) win the most titles and at least one title every year - a great achievement. Roger Federer (4), James Blake (3) and Tommy Haas (2) being the next best in terms of success.

Success Of The Seeds

In the last five years, reading from 2007-2003, the winners of these six tournaments have been seeded thus: Indianapolis (3-1-x-1-1), Toronto (3-1-1-1-6), Cincinnati (1-x-1-x-7), Los Angeles (x-6-1-x-7), Washington (1-x-1-2-x) and New Haven (3-2-x).

So what can we deduce from all this information and how can we turn it to our advantage? Well, several points spring to mind.

Watch Out For Native Players

Something we've banged on about for a long time is the performance of players when playing in their own country. Roddick, Blake and Ginepri; even Isner, Querrey, Dancevic and Fish (all last year) - all these guys deserve our closest attention. Roddick especially as he needs some good results after a below par grass court season and has a stellar North American record.

Be Wary Of The Big Guns

The big three - Federer, Nadal and Djokovic - don't have a great record in the run up to the US Open. Often they're happy with one, maybe two events. Of the three it must be Djokovic who has most to prove. Wimbledon was a huge missed opportunity for the world No.3 and these courts should be to his liking.

Players Maintaining Form

Few players stay on a hot streak from week-to-week. Last year Federer, Blake and Karlovic managed to make the SF's two weeks running. Prior to that Gonzalez and Tursunov (2006), Rusedski and Blake (2005), Roddick and Kiefer (2004), Roddick and Schuettler (2003) managed the feat. Be cautious of players competing two weeks running.

Experience Is The Key

Looking at all the winners in our table, how many were winning a tournament for the first time? None of them. These events are competitive, on the most all-inclusive of surfaces (hard) and include two Masters Series tournaments (Toronto & Cincinnati). Finding a first time winner here could prove a fruitless task - with maybe Washington or New Haven the ones most likely to see a surprise.

Seeding Statistics

Of the 28 tournaments covered, we see 11 wins for the No.1 seed, 2 wins for the No.2 seed and 3 wins for the No.3 seed. Of the rest we have 4 wins for seeds No.4 through to No.8 and 8 unseeded winners. As you'll see the further we get through this series of tournaments, the less effect the seedings have. Players become injured or fatigued, seeded withdrawals increase and field-quality drops - i.e. the events become more open.

On the basis of this information who would we look to back these coming weeks? Well, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Andy Roddick all spring to mind. These are players with a point to prove, for different reasons. All of them have won in the US before and each one can harbour ambitions of going a long way at Flushing Meadows (US Open) with the right preparation.

Time as well for some of the new batch of younger players to 'step up to the plate' as the Americans would say - Ernests Gulbis, Robin Haase, Evgney Korolev and, the so far under-achieving, Juan Martin Del Potro. Who will be the new Nadals, Djokovics and Murrays?

And players we may see little of are Ferrer, Wawrinka, Almagro, Youzhny, Robredo, Mathieu and Monaco. All top twenty in the world rankings but none with strong entries in our table and several suffering pretty average seasons on tour.

This should be a great sequence of tournaments. The feeling is that the tour is undergoing a change, it's in a state of flux, the markets are re-aligning themselves. Use the data above to plot your way through a potentially tricky, but lucrative, time on tour ... and on Betfair.

Answer: Nicolas Massu won gold in Athens, 2004.

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