General / Simon Mundie / 31 March 2010 /

In previous years we could rely on the best to win and keep winning but the big names have been strangely wobbly this year. Simon Mundie questions why

So, Roger Federer suffered another early defeat this week, humbled by the talented but inconsistent Thomas Berdych. Since the Australian Open, the world number one has had something of a miserable time on court, losing in the third round of Indian Wells to Marcos Baghdatis and the fourth round in Miami. Hardly the form of the world's best player. Fine, the Swiss maestro saves his best tennis for the Grand Slams these days, but still he's not playing anywhere near the level he would want to be. But it appears he doesn't need to worry, his nearest challengers are having a miserable time of it too.

2010 is panning out rather differently than recent years. Over the last few seasons, the likes of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have consistently reached their allotted places in the draws. Last year, that illustrious group expanded even further as several other players proved that they could be relied upon to dispatch lower ranked opponents week in, week out; guys like Juan Martin Del-Potro, Jo Wilfried Tsonga ([9.2] to win in Miami) and Fernando Verdasco ([13.5] to win in Miami). It made betting on tournaments quite a simple proposition, particularly if you wanted to play it safe. Put some money on the favourites in the early rounds, then be a little more conservative with your cash once tournaments reached their business end.

This year, that isn't how things are going, and picking the right bets isn't quite as easy. But it's not all bad news for those of us who like a flutter, indeed some shrewd betting can pay dividends.

World number two Novak Djokovic is having an even worse time of it than Federer. While he has got a tournament victory under his belt, he has looked really poor at times this year. Extremely erratic off the ground, short of conditioning and exhibiting appalling body language and attitude at times, he seems to be going backwards. He's already lost to Tsonga, Youzhny, Ljubicic and Olivier Rochus, looking every bit the worst world number two for a long time. He needs to make some changes and fast, and until he looks like he can hit his forehand properly and not act like he has the weight of the world on his shoulders, I won't be betting on him.

It looked like this could be Andy Murray's year when he reached the final of the Australian Open, but that defeat to Federer seems to have done real damage to the Scot. Janko Tipsarevic, Robin Soderling and then a drubbing at the hands of Mardy Fish speak of deep rooted ills. He's another one whose body language is not good, and he's fallen into the habit of being either too passive, or overly aggressive; he seems ill at ease with his game. I am sure he will rebound before too long, but with the clay court season now virtually upon us, he's another one I would treat with caution.

What about 2009's other big hitters? Juan Martin Del Potro hasn't played since the Australian Open because of injury, and in truth was struggling for form before then anyway; and Nikolay Davydenko's scintillating play from the end of last year and the beginning of this has subsided ever since that disappointing Australian Open defeat by Federer. But there are a few others who are benefitting from the struggles of some of the other top guns.

Rafael Nadal ([3.35] to win in Miami) isn't back to his best yet, but he is certainly getting the opportunity to play himself back into form, and inch higher up the rankings simply by being relatively consistent.

Andy Roddick ([5.6] to win in Miami) can always be relied upon to go out and give it his all, and is getting the opportunity to play for titles thanks to some of his bogeymen having been dispatched by lesser players before he has to face them. Robin Soderling ([4.7] to win in Miami) has been building on his fine 2009 over the last few weeks, reaching the semi-finals in Indian Wells and having a good run in Miami too, and the Swede is exactly the type of player who is extremely dangerous when he's playing with confidence.

But the players who may be able to benefit most from the slump at the top of the rankings are the players outside of the top 10. Ivan Ljubicic has already surprised everyone by winning in Miami, when his best days were supposed to be firmly behind him, and I expect another former top three player, Juan Carlos Ferrero, to enjoy his best clay court run in years. It would be interesting to see how someone like Djokovic fared against him over the next few months. Thomas Berdych ([11.5] to win in Miami) may finally win something becoming of his huge talent, and David Ferrer could reassert himself. Indeed there must be a whole handful of players who realize that the next few months are their best opportunity to make their mark, before usual order is restored.

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