Is Federer finished at 29?

General / Matthew Walton / 14 May 2011 / 4

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Has father time finally caught up the legendary Fed?

"The question remains whether, in the modern game, we can expect to see a player winning a Grand Slam title beyond the magical 30 barrier. The last player to do so was Andre Agassi (then aged 32) at the Australian Open in 2003."

The stats say never to back 'has-been' Federer again, according to Matthew Walton, but do you believe him?

It may come as something of a surprise but, prior to the recent win of Nikolay Davydenko in the BMW Open, the oldest player to win on the ATP Tour this year was none other than Roger Federer - aged just 29 years old.

In fact, statistically speaking, the Swiss player should be viewed as something of an antique on the global tennis roadshow ... the best days are well and truly behind the former world No.1 and arguably greatest player ever to pick up a racquet.

And the evidence is there for all to see as Federer, who won 11 titles in 2004, another 11 titles in 2005 and then a further 12 in 2006 - a period of total domination which included no fewer than eight Grand Slams and 11 Masters Series titles - has managed just one tournament win so far this year.

That solitary triumph in Qatar back in January, aged 29 years 154 days, won't be the last which Federer adds to a list which numbers 67 to date, but it highlights an important factor in tennis betting, that age is a barrier to success. Not so much in winning individual matches but definitely with regards to winning specific tournaments.

Of course players can continue to win events far beyond Federer's current age (Andre Agassi held the No.1 spot in the rankings well past his 33rd birthday) but many punters mistakenly put tennis players into the same category as, say, footballers - still able to play to a high level after the age of 30. This very rarely happens.

Federer must now be viewed very much as the elder statesman of the ATP, certainly amongst the leading quartet of players where Nadal (24), Djokovic and Murray (both 23) can be said to still have some of their most productive years ahead of them. It's more 'Roger and out' for the player who currently boasts the most Grand Slam titles and he may well find that record erased from the record books by a younger man.

It's worth noting that of Federer's 16 Grand Slam titles, the Swiss maestro won eight before his 25th birthday and has won a further eight times since ... Rafael Nadal doesn't turn 25 until June 3 and should he celebrate this anniversary with another French Open title then the Spaniard will move his haul of majors into double figures. A mere six behind Federer with the best part of four years in hand.

Traders aren't blind to the ageing process. Federer has steadily drifted in the betting for major championships as his increasing age and decreasing performances have progressed at an almost identical rate. Now, after another failure in the recent Rome Masters, he's out to something around [18.0] for this year's French Open, a tournament he won barely two years ago.

The question remains whether, in the modern game, we can expect to see a player winning a Grand Slam title beyond the magical 30 barrier. The last player to do so was Andre Agassi (then aged 32) at the Australian Open in 2003... and the Las Vegan also won in Melbourne back in 2001 shortly after blowing out the candles on his 30th birthday cake.

Every now and again players do maintain their form and fitness - and, it must be said, have a little bit of good fortune - but it's surely impossible for Ken Rosewall's Australian Open win of 1972 (aged 37 years, 62 days) to be surpassed by any future Slam winner - even if Jonas Bjorkman made the Wimbledon SF's in 2006 when some 34 years young.

After many high productive years on the men's ATP Tour it's almost time for Federer to be regarded as yesterday's man and, in terms of betting, he's certainly one to view with a great deal of caution. In fact, it's almost worth saying that Federer shouldn't be backed to win another Grand Slam title.

He might win again, of course, but the question remains as to whether there is any great value in backing the Swiss player at the likes of Wimbledon and the US Open. There isn't.

Recommended Bet
Lay Roger Federer to win Wimbledon at [5.0]

Regular tennis analysis, comment and betting advice from Matthew Walton can be found at www.tennis-tipster.co.uk

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Anonymous | 14 May 2011

sampras won us open 02 aged 31, korda won australian open at 30 and gomez aged 30 won roland garros. ivanisevic won wimbledon at 28 or 29 and agassi reached us open final at 35. federer himself had 2 match points aged 29 wo reach his 7th straight usopen final. he then beat 5 of the top 8 players in the world including the current 4,2 and 1 at the atp world championship. it was 6 months ago.

is your blog serious?
su bo | 14 May 2011

hay matty
who the hell are you and the rest of the verman in the press to tell roger federer when to go i think he has earned the right when he dicides not you or the other clowns i find it funny when roger don't feel good he has to retire when the cheater nadal who is on the juice but you don't care the media makes the excuses for him that is why i do not listen what you talking terds have to say about roger
su bo | 15 May 2011

hay matt
you speak about roger federer being old have you looked at nadal he is looking older than federer at least roger has his hair nadal is losing his to steriods big time you vermin make me sick
no name | 29 August 2011

federer is not finished!!!!!! tennis has changed so much, slower courts, players play more physical, no one volleys. federer is still adapting to change and when he has adapted he will be no 1 again. i am confident he will get 20+ grandslams!