French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 22 May 2010 /

Gary Boswell picks five outsiders from the women's first round draw who can upset the odds and make us a profit in the process, including why Alicia Molik can knock out former World Number One Jelena Jankovic first up...

VERA DUSHEVINA to beat Alona Bondarenko priced around [2.7]

Top pick in the percentage probability of occurring and value for the chance stakes is the 52 ranked Russian Vera Dushevina to oust seeded Bondarenko sister Alona, who is currently ranked 28. Bondarenko comes in on the back of losing a three-setter in Warsaw to the qualifier Greta Arn which you can see as either a wake-up call to play to her ranking or an energy drainer that leaves her very vulnerable to the feisty Dushevina. Either way, the 23 year old Russian has a tasty head-to-head advantage on the Tour over her Ukranian counterpart with a 1-0 plus on Clay gained at Amelia Island in 2006 and a win in the most recent encounter at Tokyo 2009, putting her 2-1 up overall.

With Bondarenko's negative mental state after the defeat in Warsaw, that makes Dushevina favourite in my book and thus the [2.7] or thereabouts that we are being offered is prime fare and constitutes my nap value bet of the first round.

ANNA CHAKVETADZE to beat Angelique Kerber priced around [2.2]

Take the clock back to 2007 and this price would have been [1.1] as Chakvetadze was the world number 5 and was busy running up a 3-0 head-to-head over the middle ranking German. As Bob Dylan mused, "Times they are a changing" and the Russian is as well.

Wimbledon Junior 2003 finalist, who was almost certainly thrust into the world top ten too early for her to handle, is now down to a 116 ranking and thus the outsider in this contest. A cracking price therefore as that 3-0 head-to-head still stands. Albeit that the German has improved a mite since and all three wins were on Chakvetadze's favoured grass surface.

The Russian's decline is a mystery as she often loses in tight three setters rather than the customary wipeout wilt of the disillusioned woman tennis player. A problem with closing out is diagnosed but it was something she didn't suffer from as a youngster, waltzing her way to a string of top ten wins back in those halcyon days. Her back-to-back tour wins in February this year were her first in six months which puts her plight in perspective but I still have faith in her undoubted talent and I think you have to take advantage of odds like these with her. Just a question of holding her nerve.

ROBERTA VINCI to beat Virginie Razzano priced around [2.2]

A tight call between the 60 and 50 rankers but they have the fav the wrong way round for me with Vinci having a clear 1-0 in the head-to-head and that on hard court when clay would arguably be her preferred surface. The win was back in 2006 at Joue-Les-Tours and was a clear cut 6-3 6-1;Vinci will fancy her chance of replicating that here I think.

KATIE O'BRIEN to beat Jill Craybas priced around [2.2]

Never trust a British woman with your betting cash but Katie will never get a better chance than this to progress past the first round in a Slam. She already has a 1-0 head-to-head against the veteran Yank who reaches 35 this year when the legs just have to start slowing down. Achieved at Eastbourne in 2007, it may be a slight misleader but Craybas has now dropped to 92 in the rankings and the 24 year-old Brit is actually not that far off her in standard, rated at a career high 124. Not a fixture to rest the mortgage on perhaps but a confident chance nevertheless to actually get into patriotic supporting mode!

ALICIA MOLIK to beat Jelena Jankovic priced at around [13.0]

And this one is my whopper on opening day with the price on the Australian being nothing short of unbelievable. Chance of landing is only around 25% as the Croatian has obviously matured from the days when she lost four straight games to Molik.

They have met an inordinate amount of times and Jankovic has won both of the last two in the times that she has steadied herself as a consistent top ten player. And so it is easy to argue that the 4-2 head-to-head for Molik is totally misleading but I've seen these things matter as the psychology of being on the wrong side of those defeats kicks in.

Jankovic can be flighty and although she comes in fine current form, I'm still happy to take her on at these prices just in case she has one of those days like at Wimbledon a few years back when she threw her toys out of the pram against Tanasugarn. Unlike Chakvetadze, when it goes wrong for Jankovic, it quickly spirals and she is not averse to having a spat and chucking in the towel. Against a woman who knows how to beat her and beat her 6-0 6-0 as a kid, you have to think there's a chance it could happen as the opening day shock. I'm prepared to take the chance as part of a designed profit betting approach.

RECOMMENDED BET IS: LEVEL STAKES SINGLES all five.

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