French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 21 May 2010 / 2

Gary Boswell is more than aware of the threat posed by Justine Henin in Paris but even at an invitingly big 3.2, he's staying clear of the little Belgian champ and goes into battle with four big-priced runners looking for Roland Garros glory.

She was the undisputed monarch of The Garros with initial victory in 2003. Back to backs in 2005, 2006 and her 'final' appearance in 2007. She remains the undefeated champion and now she is back from retirement in 2010 to resume the defence of her crown. She is [3.2] to back in the Betfair outrights - a suitably respectful price for the one and only Justine Henin.
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No quibbles with anyone unable to see past that as the bet. She comes out at [2.5] in my market so it's reasonable value despite the fact that there are over a century of other possibles and such shorty favs are usually an instinctive lay for me in such a market.

Not this time.

I'm not laying at that price after the way she performed in reaching the final in Melbourne in her comeback Slam. The defection of compatriot Kim Clijsters with injury removes one of the big hurdles and increases the probability. Both of the Williams sisters present a much lesser obstacle on clay with only one French Open win between them (Serena in 2002). World number one and two they may rightfully be once more but conquering The Garros for them is a mighty ask now. Their prices of [6.8] Serena and [10.5] Venus would strike me as about right and very much in the lay part of my portfolio.

Venus did manage final in Madrid in the lead up. There is no doubt she is in tremendous form and perhaps hungry for both the inaugural French Open and a return to the World number One spot her sister once more monopolises. One final and four Quarters is the sum total of Venus' ten years of trying so far. Whilst you can't rule out the possibility of her 'doing a Federer' before she retires, I don't have it high on my wish list. Her defeat in the Madrid final against current hottie Aravane Rezai was a good example of how her game is unsuited to the surface. The low ground strokes of the hard-hitting French woman seriously exposed her. Very noticeable also how the youngster went after planet Venus. They don't fear her quite like they used to. Her star is surely waning.

Whilst I won't be laying Henin because of the perceived probability of her winning, I won't be backing her either. Price is too short to overcome the habits of a lifetime so I'll be looking for some back to lays instead. Top of that list is defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova who does look a shade long at [34.0] and was an insulting [48.0] earlier in the week for those eagle- eyed worm catchers. She's not normally on my support list as she's just as likely to go out first round in a Slam as win it but she does have two under her belt now. Having made Quarters or better at the last four Garros Open's, this is clearly her preferred surface. I do think [34.0] is long and although there are question marks about current form and injury status, I'll take that as a back to lay price.

Three others to consider:Yanina Wickmayer is very much the Belgian pretender to Henin's crown and seriously impressed me in their Melbourne three setter where you could see Henin mind coaching from the other side of the net as she showed her pupil a thing or two about how to win at Slams. Henin has breezed a two-setter in Stuttgart since but I'm convinced she has it right and that Wickmayer's day will come. She is just 20 years of age, ranked 17 now and priced at [70.0] in the Betfair market, is worth a small back to lay. Her semi-final in the 2009 US Open was no fluke.She has a recent win over Rezai which gives you a good formline to her status with the current world number two and also makes her better value as an outrights punt than the French woman. Aravane is on fire but her price of [19.5] is a talking horse price that I'd like to see drift before I touch it.

Preference for Maria Jose Martinez-Sanchez at [42.0] whose win in Rome was a career best performance. To beat Wozniacki,Schiavone, Ivanovic and Jankovic without dropping a set is a serious statistical eyecatcher. A clay court specialist reaching a career high 20 ranking aged 27 has the dark horse profile that I like for the French Open. The tournament has a history of throwing up European underdogs and she gets my vote for that in 2010.

Final mention for Australian Samantha Stosur who has also catapulted up the rankings of late following her 2009 semi-final here. She also made the final in Stuttgart -losing to Henin - and beat an on-fire Martinez-Sanchez in Madrid. She is obviously playing out of her skin but world number 7 still strikes me as a slight over-rate for the 26 year old. She also has more the grass court game for me so I consider her [32.0] - drifted out from [19.5] earlier in the week as rumours about her fitness abound - a far from positive back price. Better back-to-lay potential comes I think in the shape of Nadia Petrova at [95.0]. She currently holds the top ace % on the WTA and whilst her game is also too 'grass' to win at The Garros, she is my idea of a fourth strong back to lay bet in the outright market.

THE BOZ's BEST BETS FOR THE 2010 WOMEN'S FRENCH OPEN WINNER MARKET

1pt BACK to LAY SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA at around [34.0]
1pt BACK to LAY YANINA WICKMAYER at around [70.0]
1pt BACK to LAY MARIA JOSE MARTINEZ-SANCHEZ at around [42.0]
1pt BACK to LAY NADIA PETROVA at around [95.0]

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(2)

1. Brett | 21 May 2010

   Hi Boz,

   I guess by 'BACK to LAY' you mean BACK them now and then LAY them later?

   Regards,
   Brett

   
   

2. boz | 22 May 2010

   That's the ticket and often a way to play when the price of the fancy is too miniscule as here.
   I backed Kuznetsova at 48 earlier in the week and already hedged back at 30 leaving an 18 profit for no stake if she goes on to win. It's a good way to play because Betfair often open the outrights market as in play during games. This is particularly useful for your lays. I laid Serena pre-tournament in the Oz and backed her successfully at double figures when she was a set down in one of the rounds so that my loser became a winner. Just aswell as she went on to prevail in the final!

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