The Betfair Contrarian: Why Rafael Nadal won't win the French Open

French Open Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 16 May 2011 / 2

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Rafa was floored by Nole in Rome. Will we see a repeat in Paris?

"It's impossible to fault the credentials of Novak Djokovic [2.76] after a staggering 2011 in which he is still yet to taste singles defeat."

With Federer flailing, you'd think Rafael Nadal was even more of a certainty to win the French Open than usual. Not so the Betfair Contrarian who anticipates an upset at Roland Garros...

There are few guarantees on the ATP men's world tennis tour, besides the fact that Andy Murray's wait for Grand Slam success will drag on, Andy Roddick will perform better at Wimbledon than he does in Paris and that Rafael Nadal will always win the French Open. The first two of those still hold true, but the last one is suddenly less than certain due to a weaker start to the clay court season than usual for the world number one, and the rise of Novak Djokovic. The Contrarian has taken note and is consequently recommending that you lay Nadal to win at Roland Garros at [2.08]...

It's not been a great start to the year for Nadal...

Since Rafael Nadal debuted at the French Open in 2005, he has always arrived in Paris with three or more trophies already under his belt for the season, averaging four tournament wins a year prior to the start of his favourite major. This time around he has claimed just two titles, and that's not as a result of having skipped a few either, as he has entered eight different events this year.

...as demonstrated by his clay-court success rate

The Spaniard won the French Open without even dropping a set for the second time in 2010, but that incredible achievement was scarcely a surprise because his form at the start of the clay-court campaign was so strong. Last year, he won all three Masters competitions on the surface in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid to ensure that he arrived in the French capital in top form, whereas in 2011 he has earned only the Monte Carlo crown having fallen short in Spain and Italy.

It's tough to back against Djokovic

For years, only Roger Federer has been considered to have even a slim chance of toppling a fully fit Nadal in the French Open and even then, on the three occasions that they have collided in the final, Nadal has always triumphed, conceding just two sets in the process. This time, however, it is impossible to fault the credentials of Novak Djokovic [2.76] after a staggering 2011 in which he is still yet to taste singles defeat, competing in 37 matches in seven tournaments and having seven pieces of silverware to show for it.

Djokovic has mastered Nadal on clay

While the Serbian's remarkable record this year deserves plenty of plaudits, his feats over the last fortnight have been his most impressive yet. Having lost his first nine clay-court encounters against Nadal, he beat him in straight sets in Madrid - in the process inflicting Nadal's first loss on the surface in close to two years - then a week later proved that it was no fluke by doing the exact same again in Rome. That makes him the first player to enjoy successive victories over the world number one on clay since 2005 and also means that he is 4-0 in meetings with the favourite in 2011.

A semi-final clash with Federer is a possibility

2009 champion Federer is a bigger price than usual at [19.5], having been overshadowed somewhat in recent months, but Nadal will know not to underestimate him. The 16-time Grand Slam winner's fall to third in the world rankings means that the holder may have to face his long-term nemesis before the final, and given that Federer is 2-3 against him in semis compared to 6-12 in finals, that may prove an advantage for the Swiss legend. Even if he isn't capable of finally toppling Nadal at Roland Garros, he is sure to severely test him, potentially allowing Djokovic to enter a potential final showdown far fresher than Nadal. A similar situation developed earlier this month in Madrid.

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Hussein | 16 May 2011

Oh come on, its hardly a contrarian view considering how Djokovic is playing. I know a few people who thought Novak was big at 7/4 to win last weekend. ND should be new fav for the French. If anything you should be tipping nadal because he's on the drift!
Hussein | 05 June 2011

Never in doubt! Seriously 2/1!! What a price. Nadal in a romp!