French Open Betting / Barry Millns / 21 May 2009 /

With the French Open starting this weekend, Barry Millns asks how much should we read into Roger Federer's win against Rafael Nadal at the Madrid Masters?

When Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal for the first time on clay, in the Hamburg final of 2007, he went onto Roland Garros full of hope that he could at last become French Open champion. But again he left Paris empty-handed, beaten in the four sets by the Spaniard for the second time in the final and the third year running.

Last year Federer only managed to take four games off his nemesis there, a crushing defeat which proved to be the springboard for Nadal's ultimate ascent to the top of the sport. Subsequently upstaging Federer in their epic at Wimbledon and then winning Olympic gold as well, Nadal's five-set victory against the Swiss in this year's Australian Open final underlined his pre-eminence.

So how much should be read into Federer's win against Nadal last Sunday in Madrid? From the former's perspective there were plenty of positives as he served well, fired the forehand impressively, rallied patiently, not going for too much unless the ball really was there to be put away and ultimately got through a nervous last game when serving for his first title since last October.

On the other hand, while Nadal was quick to play down the after-effects of his four hour marathon semi-final against Novak Djokovic the day before, he did not play his best, failed to convert any of his four break points and was significantly jaded. History had already told us how he could have done with a day's rest before facing the world No.2.

Nadal began the 2008 season in Chennai where he played a gruelling three-hour 55-minute semi-final against Carlos Moya. Less than 24 hours later he was still cream-crackered and was thumped 6-0, 6-1 by Mikhail Youzhny in the final. Yet in Melbourne this year, having had a day's rest after his amazing five-hour 15-minute semi-final triumph against Fernando Verdasco, he was able to go the distance with Federer and beat him down the stretch for the title.

If you then factor in that Nadal has never lost at Roland Garros and that he has never even been taken to five sets there in his 28 matches to date, what hope have the rest of dethroning him? Not for nothing is he the overwhelming favourite available at [1.42].

Well, firstly from Federer's [8.4] perspective he must hope that Djokovic [13.5] is in Nadal's half of the draw. While Andy Murray [28.0] certainly tested Nadal in the second set of their semi-final in Monte Carlo, Djokovic is for the moment a bigger threat on clay, as he showed in taking a set off the Spaniard in Monte Carlo, also reaching the final against him in Rome and then almost beating him in Madrid.

As heartbreaking as it was for the Serb to lose on Saturday, having stepped back onto clay he has regained his best form over the last few weeks. Part of that is due to working with his new fitness trainer Gebhard Phil-Gritsch, who used to work with the Austrian iron-man Thomas Muster and I expect Djokovic to bounce back quickly to at least make the semi-finals for the third year in a row.

Outside of the world's top four it is hard to see anyone else creating significant problems for Nadal in defence of his title. His total clay court record against the six players ranked from Nos.5-10 is played 10, won 10 (including 21 sets won and just two lost).

Some have suggested that a big server like Andy Roddick [300.00], Ivo Karlovic [1000.00], Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [300.00] or Tomas Berdych [800.00] could do some damage against him. After all, aside from Karlovic, they have all beaten Rafa on hard courts, but to do so on clay, over best-of-five sets, would require a super-human effort and all have weaknesses in their games which he would find ways to exploit.

Realistically the only 'spanner' I could see in the Spaniard's work towards a fifth successive title would be if he got injured. In the past, blisters have occasionally got the better of him and he did require some strapping just above his right knee last weekend, but I believe he will be fighting fit for a fifth tilt at the title in Paris and even more pumped up to show whose still the boss after his rare loss in Madrid.

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