French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 17 May 2011 /

The French Open women's tournament saw a shock last year as Francesca Schiavone triumphed. Gary Boswell explains why you'd be wise to back a surprise this year too.

Strong is beautiful is the new soundbite of the WTA tour and if supreme women athletes in studio lit glamour pose is your thing, I can recommend the www.wtatour.com site. Flick through the 36 top player gallery and when you've finished drooling, you can get down to some serious form study to determine who is going to win the upcoming French Open - as delicious a betting heat as you are ever likely to find in women's tennis.

Widely accepted as the most open Grand Slam event for many a year. The absence of the Williams sisters and the fact that other Slam heavyweights Kim Clijsters and Maria Sharapova don't like clay means this - as it was last year - is a tournament to have a punt on a longshot. Defending champion Francesca Schiavone was [190.00] before the event last year and is [29.0] to retain the crown. It's worth looking at how she created such a shock in 2010.

If you're like me, you were brought up on the concept of Wimbledon grass as the place where 'real' tennis was played. Proper serve and volley a la Rod Laver and Margaret Court. The clay of the European circuit - of which the French Open is the flagship Slam event - was the breeding ground for the baseline basher version of women's tennis perfected by Monica Seles. It was in this arena that the UK's own baseline diva - Sue Barker - was able to attain her famous Slam.

That spread to the men's game too in the early Rafael Nadal era but the rules got rewritten a bit last year in the women's version as mid-ranking Italian Schiavone moved the goalposts. Her sublime forehand drop volley at the net in her final game against Australian baseline basher Samantha Stosur sticks vividly in my mind. As does the looping moonshot that Schiavone and others used to break down the bash-bash dominance of players like Dinara Safina and Jelena Jankovic. Schiavone played a varied game on the clay that was a breath of fresh air for the viewer and has continued to challenge the bash-bash dominance ever since.

It's worth remembering, however, that Schiavone was only able to stay in the arena to play that varied game because she had developed a new gymnasium strength and fitness programme with her coach prior to the French Open. Who can forget that picture of her bench pressing and kissing the clay as the victory salute after her quarter-final win over Caroline Wozniacki?

Schiavone's serve (gymnasium strength enhanced) held rock solid throughout last year's event and was the key attribute that allowed her to go all the way. The varied play made her a joy to watch. It was the solid strength of serve, however, that engendered her success. It often is. Serena Williams won Wimbledon because of it and Kim Clijsters won Flushing Meadows and Melbourne, hardly dropping a service game along the way.

If you are looking for a Slam heavyweight to back next week, note that Maria Sharapova's service game held firm in winning Rome last week. Arguably the first time it has done so since her return from shoulder surgery in 2008. She is currently [9.2] to buck her anti-clay reputation and win in Paris and if you saw the way she demolished world number one Wozniacki in the semi, you could well consider that a long price for a woman who was unplayable at her best. My caveat to that would be the fact that she was a set down in Rome against Viktoria Azarenka and looking held when the notoriously frail Belarussian had to retire with injury in the second set. Sharapova's price is tempting if a tad short overall.

That said, I'm a layer of Azarenka at [7.8] at the Garros and likewise Wozniacki at the same price. They head the market as joint favourites but I'd rather be backing Sharapova than either of those unproven Slam prospects. Next to solid serve, championship mentality is the most important factor for me in assessing possible winner and Shara has bucketloads. The other two have so far shown zilch.

The youngster I will back is Czech left hander Petra Kvitova at [13.0]. I flagged her up 12 months ago as an outsider but she comes into this as top six in the betting after her wins this year at Brisbane, Paris and Madrid. Match victories over Clijsters and Zvonareva atone for her slightly disappointing quarter-final wilt in Melbourne. She is perhaps not quite the finished article yet but if she is not a champion in waiting then I know nothing about tennis. Real touch of the Navratilova's about Ms Kvitova.

After identifying Schiavone at [190.0] last year as a back to lay potential (who went and made a mockery of the layback I did at quarter-final stage!), I must also play same in this year's event as it's such a potentially open heat. Current form is always a pointer in this sphere and there has been no-one in better form of late than German Julia Goerges but her price reflects that and she is too short at [22.0].

I plump instead for the young Slovenian Polona Hercog who relishes clay and notched wins over Alexander Dulgheru and Svetlana Kuznetsova in the lead up. Her outright price of [310.00] is my first recommended back to lay and the other candidate from whom I think you'll get a decent run is recently-married Aussie Jarmila Gajdosova who has just broken into the top 25 and is heftily priced at [410.0].

Recommended Bets
1pt Back Maria Sharapova @ [9.2]
1pt BACK Petra Kvitova @ [13.0]
0.5pt Back to lay Polona Hercog @ [310.0]
0.5pt Back to lay Jarmila Gajdosova @ [410.0]

also

1.5pt Lay Caroline Wozniacki @ [7.8]
1.5pt LAY Viktoria Azarenka @ [7.8]

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