French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 20 May 2011 /

Sure, we're all set for a Nadal v Djokovic final but don't rule out a few big priced players enjoying a run at the French Open title, says Sean Calvert

The draw has been made for the 2011 French Open at Roland Garros and with defending champion, Rafa Nadal, suddenly looking beatable on clay, we're all set for a fascinating fortnight in Paris.

Rafa has been drawn with Andy Murray, while Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer square up in the bottom half of the draw.

Apart from Murray, the Spaniard won't be relishing a potential third round clash with Nikolay Davydenko, who has won the pair's last four meetings (admittedly on hard-courts) and who has a 6-4 head-to-head advantage over Nadal.

John Isner shouldn't be a problem for Rafa in round one, but there are plenty of easier first round matches he could have drawn and he should at least be tested by either Santiago Giraldo or Pablo Andujar in round two.

Rafa's last 16 opponent is seeded to be Fernando Verdasco, who has never bettered that stage at Roland Garros and who was thrashed 6-1, 6-0, 6-2 by Nadal in the same round in 2008.

Nadal shouldn't be troubled by Verdasco, as their 12-0 head-to-head shows, but there is a chance that Rafa's quarter-final opponent could cause him problems, as he is set to meet Robin Soderling in the last eight.

Soderling, of course, is the only man to beat Rafa at Roland Garros and the Swede shouldn't be underestimated, despite coming into this event in mediocre form.

Sod has never done well in the run-up to Paris, but he's reached the final for the last two years and has to be respected here despite in my view lacking the guile and variety of shot to become a Slam winner.

The Swede has a straightforward-looking draw and at [80.0] he should at least give you a run to the quarters for your money.

In the adjacent section, Murray must be pleased with his draw, with only Nicolas Almagro and possibly Jurgen Melzer to worry about ahead of a potential semi-final with Nadal.

Murray's clay-court form, while patchy, hit the heights against Nadal in Monte-Carlo and Djokovic in Rome and he has been the only player to really test Nole on the red dirt this spring.

It's a tough ask for him to beat Rafa and then probably Djokovic on clay in the space of a couple of days, but for me he's a better bet at around [24.0] than Federer is at around [18.0].

I still don't see the Scot stringing seven high-quality matches together on clay (or any other surface come to that) though, but he could be a decent back-to-lay bet at the current price, as he should reach the semis.

Almagro has reverted back to his former inconsistent self this European clay swing with just one semi to speak of, but if you're after a [100.0] shot with half a chance then Nico could be your man.

The Murcian gave Rafa a good game in the last eight last year and this quarter looks a straight shootout between he and Murray, with Melzer off form and with little else to speak of in the section.

In the bottom half, man of the moment Djokovic won't be ecstatic about his draw, with Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, and Richard Gasquet all more than capable on their day.

Del Potro is the immediate danger, with a mouth-watering third round clash between he and Djokovic looking likely unless Ernests Gulbis upsets the apple cart or, more likely, if Delpo's injury counts him out.

I can't see the big Argentine lasting the pace in his condition and there's every chance that Berdych could find his way to the quarters for a second year in a row, with a draw that contains the returning Tommy Haas.

Gasquet is long overdue a decent performance in Paris, after four first round losses in seven visits to Roland Garros thus far in his career and he should be at peak confidence after his stunning win over Federer in Rome.

The Swiss, for once, has been handed a potentially tough first round tie with Feliciano Lopez, who should have beaten him in Madrid and who has only lost to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in his last three events.

Federer's quarter is wide open, with Stan Wawrinka, David Ferrer, and Gael Monfils all with a shout of making the last eight at Federer's expense if his poor red dirt form continues.

Ferrer looks poor value at around [55.0] bearing in mind his poor record at Roland Garros - he's only twice reached the quarters in eight attempts, but Monfils looks infinitely better value at around [450.0].

Lamonf has hardly played this clay swing due to various ailments, but he has reached a quarter and a semi at Roland Garros in his last three visits, so don't rule out a Monfils run at a huge price.

Overall, the best bet this year looks to be the [1.95] about a Nadal v Djokovic final - as I wouldn't be 100 percent confident about backing either of them at [2.14] for Nadal and [2.94] about Djokovic.

The pair are head and shoulders above the rest at the moment and it would be fitting to see them fight out another Slam final.

Recommended Bets
Back 'Yes' at [1.95] in Djokovic/Nadal final
Outright longshot: Back to lay Monfils at [450.0]

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