French Open Daily Tips: Outsider puts friendship aside in bid to upset odds
French Open Betting
/
Ben Caudell /
26 May 2010 /
They may be friends but they will be going all out to beat each other today
"The best bet in Tsonga v Ouanna is to back over 32.5 games at [1.48] because when best mates play each other, matches tend to be close."
There's an all-French affair at Roland Garros today as two pals go head to head. We may not see an upset but we should see a long match, says Ben Caudell. Meanwhile, a rising Czech could progress in straight sets.
Josselin Ouanna (FRA) v Jo Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
This all-French second round match between best buddies Ouanna and Tsonga has all the hallmarks of a potential upset. The pair put aside their friendship for the third time in their careers as they battle it out for a place in round three. Tsonga leads the head-to-head series 2-0 but he struggled in his first round match against Daniel Brands, overcoming the German 7-5 in the fifth set. He's lacked form and fitness on the clay recently and looked lethargic at times against Brands.
Ouanna, on the other hand, was troubled a lot less in his four set win over big serving Lukasz Kubot. The 24-year-old Frenchman, who is ranked over a 100 places below his compatriot, defeated Marat Safin and Marcel Granollers in five sets before losing in the third round of last year's French Open to semi-finalist Fernando Gonzalez.
Tsonga prevail in this match, he has more experience and variety in his game but there is value in backing Ouanna at the start of the match and trading out at a shorter price. The best bet is to back over 32.5 games because, when best mates play each other, they generally know each other's games inside out and matches tend to be a lot closer regardless of the gap or standard in rankings.
Selection: Back Over 32.5 Games @1.6
Lay Tsonga 3-0 @ 2.0
Back Josselin Ouanna @ 6.2 pre match to trade out at shorter price
Polana Hercog (SLO) v Lucie Safarova (CZE)
Lucie Safarova is one of the most in-form players on clay. The Czech left hander is 8-2 on the red stuff and 6-4 at the French Open. With two quarter final appearances, Rome and Stuttgart, and one semi final showing in Madrid in the lead up to this event, Safarova has the confidence and the ability to make a name for herself here this year.
Hercog who is ranked 27 places below her opponent has had less of an impact in the last couple of months and has found it hard to win two consecutive matches in a row. She did, however, reach the final of Acapulco in February, losing to Venus Williams in the final, so she has the game to compete on this surface.
I believe that Safarova, if she remains fit, will win this match comfortably as Hercog has a losing record against left-handers and hasn't defeated anyone ranked in the top 20 this year . Safarova is a step-up in class and has clay-court wins this year over Nadia Petrova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Maria Sharapova, Agnieszka Radwanska, Caroline Wozniaki and Flavia Pennetta. I'll be backing a straight sets win for the Czech
Selection: Back Lucie Safarova @ [1.51] to win match and @ [2.3] to win in straight sets
'.$sign_up['title'].''; } } ?>