French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 23 May 2008 / 1

Gary Boswell is always on the lookout for a short-priced favourite being turned over. Michaela Krajicek, Agnes Szavay and Elena Vesnina may provide just the sort of short-priced favourite he's on the lookout for

As with football, I consider tennis match betting less reliable than outright portfolio betting on the principle that in a one off game, class does not always tell. Particularly true in women's tennis where numerous variables come into play on any one given day. Shocks in the first round of grand slams are always a-plenty. Just a question of trying to predict where they might happen!

My strategy in tennis match betting is therefore always to seek the outsiders with a chance and in particular, look for those young players with the potential to burst on to the scene. Once the draw is out, I also pay close attention to the games my outright portfolio picks are playing in to see if there is any chance of a first round match betting hedge.

The following are my outsiders with a chance in the first round draw at Roland Garros:

1/ Yung-Jan Chan versus Tzvetana Pironkova.

This is the battle of the youngsters and the money is likely to be for the talking horse Pironkova who made a serious fist of her prep tournament in Istanbul, only going down at the semi-final stage to number two seed Radwanska. Chan, meanwhile,was in similar good form in the Strasbourg tournament and particularly impressed me with her fighting spirit in the game I watched against Srebotnik. Rated a lowly 80 on the WTA at the moment, the youngster from Taipei also has a victory over Pironkova under her belt already this year on the clay in Berlin. She won that in straight sets and could be a very good price to repeat in the first round at Garros.

2/Sanda Mamic versus Michaela Krajicek

Krajicek was one of my best bets at Wimbledon last year since when she had hardly won a game. 0/9 in 2008 and slipping down the rankings to a new low of 43, she will come in to this at the absolute rock bottom of her confidence which makes her vulnerable to the world's number 335 who could be a truly whopping price to win. One to play in running methinks when it will be easy to hedge Mamic back if she takes an early lead.

3/Ayumi Morita versus Agnes Szavay

Another whopping longshot and my main attempt at getting a seed beaten. Most of the seeds have drawn opponents they should demolish on paper but Szavay gets to play the new 18 year old Japanese sensation who burst on to the scene when beating her compatriot Sugiyama at Edgbaston last year. She has continued on the upgrade since and gets a real chance to write her name in lights here.

4/Sabine Lisicki versus Elena Vesnina

The German teenager is an even bigger talent than Morita and despite wins this year against Chakvetadze,Davenport and Safina, she is still only rated 84 on the WTA list. Should be an outsider in the betting against Vesnina who is much better known for her doubles play and must be vulnerable to a first round shock.

5/Ekaterina Bychkova versus Patty Schnyder

My final pick comes into the category of a hedge against one of my picks on the outrights. You can read my outrights blog to find out what I think of Schnyder's overall chance but she won't be pleased at her first round draw where she must reverse the form on carpet at Paris last year when Bychkova prevailed after losing the first set. As number 11 seed, Schnyder will be short odds to win but this is sure to prove another tough test for her.

One or two other first round games to keep your eye on. My dark horse in the outrights - Vera Zvonareva - has drawn local girl Stephanie Foretz which is sure to create some lively crowd interaction.

Can't quite see it as a shock result but worth keeping an eye on inplay.

My banker for the first round is Elena Dementieva who will be a short price to see off Vera Dushevina but the 2004 finalist was in excellent form in her warm up in Istanbul and still looks to me to be the best clay court player outside Jankovic in the top ten.

Her semi-final opponent in Istanbul was the rapidly improving Uzbekistani Akqul Amanmuradova who has drawn a qualifier in the first round at Garros and can be considered another short price banker. The 24 year old is a typical late developer in the woman's game whose height gives her serve a quality that several players are struggling to cope with. Not sure that clay will be her ideal surface in the long run but she looks set to make a name for herself this year and she is down on my shortlist for Wimbledon.

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1. IanLamont | 24 May 2008

   Interesting selections - let's hope they pay off! I'm watching Cornet after her great run last week

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