French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 29 May 2008 /

As Gary Boswell watched Maria Sharapova dodge one of the greatest upsets in tennis history, he tells us about other potential upsets on the cards in the women's draw that may offer serious inplay trading opportunities...

Three of the top grass court players in the world at the moment -Amelie Mauresmo,Venus Williams and Maria Sharapova - all dropped sets in their first round games at Roland Garros as the persistent rain of the first few days has played the tournament even more decisively into the hands of the clay court specialists.

Moisture in the red clay dust makes the ball sit up even more than usual, slowing things down so much that the world's new number one came within an ace of the most sensational first round loss of all time against world number 103 Evgeniya Rodina. The 6-1,4-6,8-6 scoreline flattered Sharapova who is clearly struggling with her shoulder and subsequently has a serve that is misfiring more than a crosseyed cowboy.

Fourteen double faults in the first two sets and arguably a forehand also crippled by the injury problem, leaving just her imperious backhand, her desperate mental strength and the infamous orgasmic grunt that is worth at least a couple of games against any opponent.

Not enough to win her the championship though. As fragile as a porcelain pig in the draw as a whole and a ten carat lay on the Bozometer in the outrights.

Serena likewise, not playing like a favourite despite her second round win in straight sets that was not without the odd scare. It sets her on course for a last sixteen showdown with one of the Boz's pre-tournament outsiders, Patty Schnyder. A critical game in the draw this with Schnyder having a 3-2 head to head record against Serena in recent years and a 2-0 record on clay.

With such an open tournament still in front of us, the strategy of identifying underdogs is serving us well especially when hedged effectively in play. Two of my five first rounders actually ended up winning, the star being Sabine Lisicki who was backable at [65.0] when a set and 2-0 down against Vesnina. The 6-0 victory in the final set was much more the real German sensation who has many of the traits of a Steffi Graf and presents us with another fine underdog opportunity in today's second round game against twelfth seed Agnes Szavay.

The Hungarian wobbled in the first round as predicted and went from [1.01] to [2.8] in the space of ten games which is not an uncommon occurrence in women's tennis betting which is why I love it so much! I expect the same again in the second round as Szavay is a notoriously volatile player - not without class but not in the sort of bracket to make Lisicki a [3.25] shot for this. I'll be backing the German before the start and again if she goes behind early.

There'll be more ups and downs in this one than a ride on a runaway rollercoaster.

The other star in round one was world rated 335, Croatian Sanda Mamic who saw off the hapless Michaella Krajicek in straight sets. I don't actually expect same in Round Two against eighteenth seed Francesca Schiavone who could be the day's short priced banker certainty at around [1.2]. Might be worth an inplay strategy on this one too though as Mamic is full of confidence and might get an early advantage which will be easy to hedge with her price so large.

Only first round casualty in the Boz portfolio was Marion Bartoli who was unable to overcome her wrist injury against Australian Casey Dellacqua. Bartoli's second serve was totally ineffective and left her vulnerable to whoever but I was impressed with the Dellacqua serve and the five aces in the second set was what turned it after Bartoli had battled her way to the first set tie break win. I was counting losses on Bartoli but as ever, I learned a lot by watching Dellacqua who may be able to get me some back today in her second round game against Nathalie Dechy. A light of former years,

Dechy was ranked 12 in 2005 and made the semi-final in Australia that year but has been slipping ever since. As low as 88 now, the 29 year old will also find the Dellacqua serve a handful and this is another game to keep a track on inplay. I expect the improving Dellacqua to be the name in the third round draw.

Final bet in the second round comes in the Cibulkova-Sequera tie. The Venezulan Sequera is as big as [9.0] and on paper no match for the 28th seed who rates as another of the exciting young improvers on show in this tourney. I'll be expecting Cibulkova to win but perhaps not without an early struggle for supremacy as Milagros is arguably the better suited to clay. Back her before the start with a view to hedging in play.

Player tracking is everything in tennis betting and my notebook is bulging as always with all this watching. Star entry so far is Olga Savchuck - the 81 rated Ukranian who gave Amelie Mauresmo such a first round fright and looks to me to be the sort of improver with a game that will be even better suited by grass. Slice and drop shot well executed and confidently in at the net at every occasion which seriously threw Mauresmo. Top of my list for first round underdogs at Wimbledon!

Performance of the championship so far though goes to Ana Ivanovic. Her second round demolition of the 2007 quarter finalist Lucie Safarova was in stark contrast to Sharapova's stumblings on the same day. Ivanovic did for Maria in the semis last year and the gap between the two on the surface seems to me to be ever widening. The seeding is surely the wrong way round.

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