French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 31 May 2008 / 1

Gary Boswell weighs up the pros and cons of whether to back or lay Maria Sharapova for Roland Garros glory and gives us some insight into what may happen in other sections of the draw over the next few days.

The second week at Roland Garros and the quest to land a profit from the portfolio approach to betting in the outright women's winner market continues to revolve around the question of whether world number one player Maria Sharapova is a BACK or a LAY.

Her current price is hovering around the [7.0] mark, with the Russian having been matched as high as [13.0] when in trouble against Evgeniya Rodina; she has been matched at a low as [5.5] on the market after the Williams sisters crashed out. What you still have to decide is whether someone so obviously unsuited to life on clay could possibly prevail. She has done everything she can to get eliminated early - losing sets to 103 rated Evgeny Rodina and the qualifier Bethany Mattek who she trounced 6-0 6-0 the last time they met on her favoured surface. She should arguably have lost the first set in the third round against 32 seed Karin Knapp as the Italian had a 2-1 lead in the tie-break before the wobbles set in.

Sharapova survives and she survives for the same reason that has made her the world number one. Her mental strength is ferocious and unlike many women players, she has the ability to dismiss a bad point from her mind and get on with winning the next. She suffers few of the runs of losing points that are common among the lesser lights in women's tennis.

Having survived the first set against Knapp, who was outplaying her on the surface, Sharapova suddenly switched into overdrive. The arrogance of the best player in the world took over and at 3-0 in the second set, she switched to a new racket and didn't lose another point. Yes, Knapp folded, but it was impossible not to be impressed with the Sharapova strut. The clear strut of a champion with grand slams under her belt, taunting the rest of the field to come and get her.

If it's down to tennis, they surely will. Last sixteen opponent, Dinara Safina beat her in three sets in 2006 and can be fancied again. As can Vera Zvonareva who will be her quarter final opponent if she gets past Elena Dementieva. All three of those opponents have a game more suited to clay. So, of course does Ana Ivanovic who is her likely final opponent and the new favourite to win following the elimination of Serena.

I'm still opposed to Sharapova simply because her movement remains clumsy on clay and the serve is still patchy. She is improving though and the second set against Knapp was a warning bell. What you are taking on when you lay Sharapova is the mind of a determined and successful sportswoman and it would perhaps not be wise to take her on at any cost.

More likely clay court winners still abound in the draw and the winner of the Radwanska-Jankovic 4th round game should be closely watched. A quarter final against Venus Williams' conqueror Flavia Pennetta or the qualifier Carla Suarez-Navarro awaits. Pennetta is [1.36] to win that and rates as the banker 4th round bet although I'd say that is as far as she'll go. Both Radwanska and Jankovic - both of whom are in excellent form - would have the beating of Pennetta on paper.

Ana Ivanovic is still playing the best tennis and should breeze past Petra Cetkovska in the 4th round bringing her up against The Boz outsider Patty Schnyder or Serena's surprise conqueror Katerina Srebotnik. The latter is still available at [100.0] in the outrights and has become interesting as a companion outsider for Schnyder in my portfolio although she has a poor head-to-head score against Ivanovic (played four, lost four). Schnyder had a 4-0 win record against Ivanovic as the Serb was a junior coming through the ranks whilst the last three meetings since Ana obtained top ten status have all gone the Serb's way - including a recent convincing win on clay.

Ivanovic would seem a breeze to reach the semis on paper and I'm also including her in my portfolio at this stage as I seek to oppose the other half of the draw that is dominated by Sharapova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Justine Henin has talked Kuznetsova up as her idea of a suitable successor to the Roland Garros throne but The Boz still has his doubts on that score with Kuznetsova favouring the quicker surfaces and a possessing a suspect mental toughness. I'll be looking to Azarenka or perhaps Agnes Szavay to halt her path. The young Hungarian has defied the Boz twice in the attempts to get her beaten as a short priced favourite and it is possible to view the wins against Ayumi Morita and Sabine Lisicki as the best efforts in the competition so far - brilliantly talented youngsters that both opponents were.

Szavay was still available at [60.0] in the outrights prior to the delayed third round game against Kvitova.She should win that easily. Unseeded Kanepi is her next opponent and all of a sudden, the young Hungarian looks to have a possible passage to the latter stages to compliment her brilliant performance at last year's US Open.

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1. gary boswell | 31 May 2008

   p.s.Murphy's law strikes as I abandon attempts to get Szavay beaten at short odds and she goes and does it! Petra Kvitova yet another 18 year old to watch out for!
   The Sharapova half of the draw further weakened in theory and another alarm bell to those trying to get her beat!

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