French Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 07 May 2010 /

As ever, the betting for the French Open revolves around whether Rafael Nadal is a back or a lay at his current price. If he's not the man to win it, then who should we be on, asks Simon Mundie.

So the talk of Rafa's demise was somewhat premature. The knees aren't ready to pack in just yet; that famed will to win at all costs still burns bright and his rumoured weight loss was exaggerated. His sixth consecutive win in Monte Carlo was amongst the best tournament performances of the modern era; he dropped just 14 games in five matches against opponents right out of the top drawer. "When he plays like that," his final opponent Fernando Verdasco said after an hour and 25 minutes spent taking a 6-0, 6-1 drubbing, "no one can beat him."

With that in mind, it's hardly surprising that the four-time champion's odds for the French Open are so short (he can be backed at [1.49], while his nearest challenger is defending champion Roger Federer at the seemingly-big [7.6]). However, he was considered a shoo-in for the French open last year too; the most "nailed-on" winner of a tournament that I can recall, and we all know what happened there. Plus there were a couple of shady moments in Rome that suggests maybe he's still not quite the infallible clay court player of old. He struggled for periods against both Stanislas Wawrinka ([150.0] for the French) and Ernests Gulbis ([75.0]), and the Latvian could well have won that match, had it not been his first Masters Series semi-final.

So there are small seeds of doubt as far as Rafa regaining his French open title are concerned. A reasonable option might be to lay Nadal, with a view to backing him back depending on his draw and his performances, should they be increasingly stellar. But if Nadal did happen to lose again at Roland Garros, or was struck down by injury, who could provide some value as alternatives?

Federer's form has been poor ever since the Australian; the same is true of Andy Murray ([50.0]) who is yet to truly get to grips with the nuances of clay court play; whilst the less said about Novak Djokovic ([19.0]) the better. So, with Juan martin Del Potro ruled out for a while yet with injury; 2009's usual suspects won't receive any backing from me. Instead, this could be the tournament which throws up a Gustavo Kuerten-style performance from 1997, when his first tournament win just happened to be his first Grand Slam too.

First up is Ernests Gulbis. He has always been blessed with buckets of talent and huge weapons. But there were question marks over his physical conditioning and mental state. He took care of the necessary gym work during 2009, ironically partially to blame for his lacklustre performances on court last year, but he has yet to prove he has what it takes between the ears. Unusually for a tennis player from Eastern Europe, he hasn't had to play to fight for economic survival, as his own father is one of the country's richest men. At times he appears to lack some fight, but so did Pete Sampras before winning the US Open as a 19 year old. He has the ability to surprise everyone and actually go on and win the French Open in a few weeks.

At the other end of the spectrum is David Nalbandian ([210.0]). He's another one whose talent and on-court skills have never been in question. He's reached the semi-finals at all four majors, and is equally as adept on clay as he is on any surface. He recently returned from injury, and knows he is drinking at the last chance saloon. He looks slimmer than he has in years, and has posted some decent results on clay since returning from injury. He hammered Tommy Robredo ([560.0]) in Monte Carlo, then came through an epic three setter against Mikhael Youzhny ([490.0]) that will have toughened him up mentally. Could this be the year when Nalbandian finally produces in a major tournament as he should have done long ago? You never know.

The last home-grown finalist at the French Open was Henri Leconte who took a beating against Mats Wilander in 1988. If 2010 is the year when they are to have another one, the man to do it is Jo Wilfried Tsonga ([140.0]). He hasn't set the clay court swing alight, but has looked impressive in patches during some of his matches, and has posted two wins over the clay court specialist Nicolas Almagro ([270.0]). He is playing with a new and more powerful racket and thrives when he has the support of a vociferous crowd behind him, which he will certainly have if he can string together a few match wins.

My real outsider pick is Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci ([300.0]), who has consistently crept up the rankings over the last couple of years to his current position of 26th. He is clearly comfortable on clay, has the advantage of being left-handed and has posted some solid if unspectacular results in Monte Carlo and Rome, only losing to two men (who are amongst the favourites to excel in Paris in David Ferrer [60] and Novak Djokovic). He's not going to be first on anyone's list of potential champions, but then again no one is while Nadal is still in the draw, and you could do worse if you fancy taking that leap of faith.

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