French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 06 June 2008 /

Djokovic may take a set from the imperious Nadal. But three? Unlikely says Sean Calvert.

Novak Djokovic has the unenviable task of toppling Rafael Nadal for the first time at Roland Garros when the two clash in the semi-final of the French Open today.

Djokovic will take over Nadal's world number two ranking should he do what no-one else has managed and knock the Spaniard out of the tournament.

The 21-year-old Serbian is enjoying a remarkable season and his victory over Ernests Gulbis in the quarters meant that he achieved the enviable feat of reaching his fifth consecutive Grand Slam semi final - a record matched only by Roger Federer, Boris Becker and Ivan Lendl in the Open era.

Should he emerge triumphant against the defending champion and go on to claim the title, Djokovic will become the first man since Jim Courier in 1992 (and only the fourth in the Open era after Rod Laver, Mats Wilander and Courier) to win the first two Slams of the calendar year.
Those are the incentives, as if Djokovic needs any, but does he yet possess the mastery on clay required to take out Nadal on what has become his own backyard?

The head-to-head and current form makes [1.23] for a Nadal victory about right. The pair have squared up on ten occasions, with Mallorca's finest holding a 7-3 advantage on all surfaces and a 4-0 lead on the red dirt.

Djokovic, who is [5.3] to cause an upset, can take heart from the fact that he took a set off Nadal for the first time on clay at the recent Hamburg Masters event and is clearly getting closer to his rival. But is it close enough?

The way that Nadal has brushed aside all challengers so far without ever looking like he was going to lose a set, suggests that he is back to his imperious best after fitness doubts coming in to the event.

His destruction of Almagro in the semis removed any fitness doubts, such as there were, and although Djokovic will certainly provide stern opposition, the bet looks to be Nadal in four at [3.7]. Djokovic has the look of a man who feels he belongs at the very top of the men's game these days, which is why I take him to grab the first set off the Spaniard of the tournament, but to take three is surely beyond even the stubborn Serb.

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