French Open Betting / Barry Millns / 19 May 2010 /

There are no prizes for guessing who is the hot favourite for the French Open title in the men's draw and it's not surprising that Rafal Nadal is trading as short as [1.44]. But all things considered, should you be backing or layinh him at that price, asks Barry Millns.

After his record breaking exploits on clay in the past few weeks it is no surprise that Rafael Nadal returns to Roland Garros as the heavy odds-on favourite at [1.44]. Still some days shy of his 24th birthday the four times former champion has swept all aside this season on the toughest of surfaces, with last Sunday's win against Roger Federer in the Madrid final the perfect launch-pad for another tilt at the French Open title.

As ever with Rafa, his numbers through another European clay court swing are staggering and without equal in the current era. The first man ever to win all three clay court Masters 1000's in the same season, he is now on a 15-match winning streak and has dropped only two sets in the process of winning his latest titles in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid.

In claiming a record 18th Masters shield Nadal now has an incredible 195-16 win-loss tally on clay in his career and is 168-6 since the start of 2005, the year he first won the French Open on his debut. So how does Rafa's fitness compare to last year when Robin Soderling stunned him in the fourth round in Paris?

This year Nadal has played 10 fewer matches since the start of the season to this point than in 2009. He currently has no issues with the patella tendonitis that has afflicted him at various times in his career, while the knee injury that brought him to a halt against Andy Murray in the Australian Open bought him the whole of February to rest and recuperate.

Back up to No.2 in the rankings the Spaniard has also not had any gruelling marathon contests on clay as he had last year, especially against Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals in Madrid. That result took a huge amount out of them both mentally as well as physically, but this time Nadal (who opted not to defend his title in Barcelona) is remarkably fresh at this stage of the campaign.

To achieve the toughest task in tennis (beat Rafa on clay over the best of five sets) you have to have major weapons at your disposal, an aggressive mindset throughout, plus fearless mental fortitude to last the course and then hope that Nadal is somewhat below power. So it was when Soderling dethroned him last year, the big-hitting Swede finishing the match with 61 winners, 28 more than Nadal who was a step slower throughout as a result of his arduous build-up.

The two players who have taken a set off Nadal on clay this year are Ernests Gulbis (in Rome) and Nicolas Almagro (in Madrid). Like Soderling, both not only had to serve well to do so but also hit a barrage of massive ground strokes.

Gulbis, who also made good use of his excellent drop shots, certainly pushed Nadal closer over the full three sets than Almagro did, but who else can do so over the longer distance in Paris?

Federer, ([6.0]), who now trails Nadal 10-2 in clay court encounters, has not managed to take his great rival to a fifth set on the surface since the Rome final in 2006. In fact, aside from Soderling's 4-set triumph, the last person to play a fifth set on clay against Nadal other than Federer was Guillermo Coria in Rome in 2005.

It was not until the second set of last weekend's Madrid meeting that Federer started using drop shots himself to some advantage when he had forced Rafa deep. But with his single-handed backhand the Swiss will always find it tough to keep Nadal at bay sufficiently when the Spaniard peppers his backhand corner with so much high bouncing top spin.

Whether third favourite Novak Djokovic, ([32.0]), can come back vigorously after illness and allergies got the better of him in Belgrade remains to be seen. But with Soderling, ([110.0]), also looking jaded now there seem to be very few others in the draw who have a realistic shot of taking two sets off Nadal, let alone three, and preventing him from regaining the title.

Rafa may be trading at very short odds, but to my mind the way he and the rest have built up to Roland Garros, it is still far better to back than lay against the Spaniard sinking his teeth into the Coupe des Mousquetaires once again.

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