Events / Guy McCrea / 08 August 2011 / 1

All the stars of women's tennis do battle in Toronto and Cincinnati over the next couple of weeks. Guy McCrea expects these events to provide important clues as to who will succeed at the U.S. Open ...

These next two weeks on the WTA are where the build-up to the U.S. Open truly starts. Sure, the long-standing Californian Premier-level events in Stanford and Carlsbad (which is still known to most as San Diego, despite this year's name change) have been around a while. But save Serena Williams' triumph in Stanford as she won her first title in over a year, neither event really hit the heights. Instead, what we got were fairly weak fields and largely disappointing matches.

The fortnight now upon us promises to be different. Historically, these two weeks don't seem too important. Although it is the third oldest event on the calendar, only three of the past ten Canadian Open champions have gone on to also win in New York. Moreover, unlike the men's version, Cincinnati has only recently become a top-level event on the WTA. But for me, these consecutive events will likely prove significant because of the stellar names involved and the different questions surrounding them.

Impressively, all of the WTA's top 20 are entered for the Canadian Open, where Caroline Wozniacki (priced on Betfair at [11.0] to retain the Rogers Cup) is the defending champion. The world number one is a machine at WTA Premier-level hardcourt events, with five titles and one runner-up finish in the eight she has played since winning in Canada. This is Wozniacki's best surface principally because she moves so well on it and effectively builds a defensive wall that is so tough to penetrate. Wozniacki's fluid movement on hardcourts is in complete contrast to how she stumbles around on clay.

Clearly, Wozniacki can prosper - but when assessing her U.S. Open chances, what is more relevant is how she plays. Is Wozniacki willing to take a few more risks and attack more? Has she been able to beef up her forehand on the practice court after those meek exits at the French Open and Wimbledon? And can the Dane show the same fighting spirit at the Slams that she does at WTA events? Of course, we won't know that until we see her play in New York - but Wozniacki does have the chance to provide answers to those other questions in these next couple of weeks. My hunch is she won't but that doesn't mean she can't succeed again at WTA level - especially in the absence of too many form players in her section of the Toronto draw.

For Kim Clijsters ([14.0] to win) and Petra Kvitova ([6.0]), much of the focus is simply on their fitness. Clijsters has only played two events in the last four months because of injuries. The Belgian had planned to play in Carlsbad but instead decided she wasn't quite ready. Kvitova also hasn't played competitively since winning her maiden Grand Slam crown at Wimbledon. The Czech also chose to skip the trip to California and stay at home to treat a left abdominal problem.

Realistically, I don't see either Clijsters or Kvitova winning this week in Toronto. Success in Cincinnati will also be a tough ask - although Clijsters is the defending champion in the mid-west. Most relevant for both is whether they can get a decent number of matches during the fortnight to prove their fitness ahead of New York.

Serena ([4.0] favourite to win Toronto) is a potential third round opponent for Clijsters this week. The American produced another amazing moment in her remarkable career by winning the title in Stanford last month. Some of the tennis the 13-time Grand Slam champion played was highly impressive - not least in a quarter final thrashing of Sharapova. After all her well-documented troubles with injury and illness, Serena is highly motivated and some more match play in the next two weeks will only improve her level ahead of the U.S. Open where she is a real contender.

Clearly Serena is capable of winning during this fortnight, but my concern is how she will handle back-to-back tournaments, especially if she goes deep in Toronto. At this stage in her progression to full match fitness, I am not totally convinced of the value to be had in backing her this week or next.

Outside of those marquee names, I am intrigued by Marion Bartoli's chances. The Frenchwoman goes slightly under the radars of some. But now back in the top ten, Bartoli has had an excellent 2011, most recently reaching the final in Stanford. None of the other top women enjoy playing her and Bartoli has also made no secret of her desire to go really deep at this year's U.S. Open. Like all those entered, she will see this fortnight as central in her preparation for New York.

Recommended bets:

Back Caroline Wozniacki at [11.0] to defend the Rogers Cup
Longshot: Back Marion Bartoli at [36.0] to win in Toronto

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1. MSL | 09 August 2011

   Yeah. Bartolli was a long shot all right.
   
   But all in all, it was a good, sensible analysis. Stuff happens!

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