Events / Guy McCrea / 21 March 2012 /

Now 23 matches undefeated after victory in Indian Wells, Victoria Azarenka leads the WTA's stars to Miami for an equally important event - the Sony Ericsson Open. But Guy McCrea thinks her brilliant run could finally end this fortnight...

Her unbeaten run isn't comparable to Novak Djokovic's 2011 heroics just yet, but Victoria Azarenka's current win streak is definitely starting to have a similar feel about it. After her initial unexpected struggle against Mona Barthel, I went on to make good profits from Azarenka's success at Indian Wells, particularly in the second week when she once again got the better of both Agnieszka Radwanska and Maria Sharapova.

The world number one now owns the best start to a WTA season since Martina Hingis in 1997. She is the defending champion in Miami and, priced at around [2.48], is also a warm favourite to triumph in Florida for a third time. Azarenka also won the coveted Key Biscayne crown in 2009.

So with her current form and past track record, everything again points to Azarenka, doesn't it?
Not so fast. You need to realise that it has always been a tough task for anyone to win Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back. The feat has only ever been achieved on three occasions - Steffi Graf did it in 1994 and 1996, while Kim Clijsters managed to do so in 2005. This is probably due to two major factors - the different conditions and the knee-deep quality fields at both elite tournaments.

Many Indian Wells champions looking to double up at Miami in the past have been troubled by the different atmosphere in Florida. It is often much more humid in Miami than in the Californian desert, where balls fly through the air at times.

The courts have also tended to play differently. Miami has always had a much higher bounce than Indian Wells and the word on-site this week is that due to a lack of the usual grit, the Miami surface is playing quicker than in previous years. In other words, it should favour the bigger hitters this time.

For me, that is welcome news as it will provide respite from the slow, homogeneous hardcourts which have unfortunately come to dominate the professional tennis circuit in recent years. But it also presents another issue for those such as Azarenka who are looking to adapt after going deep in the desert.

The stellar field on show in Miami will be the other problem for her. It is even stronger than Indian Wells - boosted by the returns to tournament play of both two-time champion Kim Clijsters [16.0] and Serena Williams [6.6] who, along with Graf, holds the record of five Miami trophies.

Azarenka has received some help from the draw gods who look to have handed her a relatively routine path to the latter stages. There won't be any Barthel-like opening match troubles for her against either Michaela Krajicek or qualifier Eva Birnerova. Thereafter, the likes of Lucie Safarova, Angelique Kerber (who she beat in Indian Wells) or Dominika Cibulkova could perhaps take a set off Azarenka on a good day, but I don't see any of them actually beating her.

Elsewhere, both Clijsters - who is priced at [1.25] to win her first round match in straight sets - and Serena are in a stacked third section of the Miami draw, along with US Open champion Sam Stosur [50.0] and Caroline Wozniacki. Of course, it means only one of those big names can even reach the semi-finals. It is a minefield to predict who will, particularly as both Clijsters and Serena have played so little this season.

My feeling is that the Miami champion will probably still come from the third section of the draw. Whoever does make it through will be full of confidence and worth backing at that stage to win the tournament. That is particularly true of Clijsters and Serena, both multiple Miami titlists who generally play their best tennis at this event.

That's why, on this occasion, I advise against immediately entering the winner market. If anything, I would look to lay Azarenka in the outright market early on and instead concentrate on making returns from the set betting in her seemingly straightforward early round matches, before switching focus next week when that bottom section of the Miami draw has become clearer.

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