Events / Ben Caudell / 28 October 2011 /

It's make-or-break time over in Istanbul with semi-final places and huge financial rewards at stake. Sam Stosur has the weapons to beat Li Na and book her place in the last four, says Ben Caudell.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) v Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)

The odds are heavily against Radwanska today as she faces the hard-hitting 2011 Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova, in a match that will decide who qualifies in second place from the Red Group.

Radwanska, however, knows what it feels like to be a huge underdog. At 5-3 and 40-15 down in the final set to Vera Zvonareva late last night, the Polish number one saved three match points in total to keep her chances of making the semi-finals alive, eventually prevailing 1-6 6-2 7-5.

Kvitova has already qualified from the Red Group, winning her first two matches. Either Zvonareva or Radwanska will be the group's second qualifier. If Radwanska wins just a set against Kvitova today she will qualify, if not, then Zvonareva goes through instead.

The 22 year-old Pole knows now what she has to do to qualify and in her press conference after yesterday's immense battle she went on to say "For sure it's going to be tough, but I'm going to do my best tomorrow, I'm going to fight like hell".

This kind of fighting talk leads me to believe that Radwanska is capable of winning at least one set and making it through to the next stage of the tournament. The number eight seed has a good record against big servers, winning six of her last seven matches. Surprisingly, she also has a superior surface rating and predicted chance of winning (58%) and has a 12-2 record in all matches.

In their most recent match on the Eastbourne grass courts in June of this year Radwanska took the Czech all the way to a final set tie-break. With both players in such good form at the moment, hopefully we will see a repeat performance and another three-set thriller.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Kvitova 2-0 @ [2.2]

Back Over 21.5 Games@ [2.2]

Na Li (CHI) v Samantha Stosur (AUS)

All the cards will be laid out on the table in this match as the winner goes straight through to the semi-finals with Victoria Azarenka, now that Sharapova has withdrawn from Istanbul. The stats are definitely in favour of the Australian, who compiles a formidable 5-0 head-to-head series lead over the2011 French Open Champion and my money is on it being a comfortable straight-sets win.

US Open Champion Sam Stosur, has conceded only one set from her five matches against Na Li, she has a won 10 in a row against big servers and eleven of her last twelve when priced as a moderate favourite (1.20 - 1.50)

Li has looked awful all tournament, in fact since her outstanding French Open tournament win way back in May of this year she has won only seven matches in total. At 5'7" Li is going to struggle with the immense top-spin Stosur generates on her serve and forehand, therefore I'm backing the Aussie to stretch her lead to six wins in a row against the Chinese superstar.

Back Stosur 2-0 @ [2.12]

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