US Men's Clay Court Championship: Odesnik and Querrey worth a bet
Events
/
Sean Calvert /
09 April 2012 /
Big Sam Querrey is one of Sean Calvert's picks this week
"Sam Querrey reached the final here in 2010 and he can be an effective performer on clay on his day."
The clay court season commences in Houston this week with coverage starting on ESPN on Friday. Sean Calvert has gone through the field and came up with two lively outsiders to consider.
The clay court season kicks off this week, with two ATP 250 events and the good news for UK fans is that one will be screened live on ESPN.
The satellite channel's first foray into live tennis in the UK starts with the US Men's Clay Court Championship from Houston, Texas, but ESPN are only showing the event from Friday onwards.
It's a brave move beginning your coverage on Friday the 13th, but anyway, at least tennis fans will be able to see the latter stages of this event and several other ATP 250s.
Juan Monaco plays in Houston for the first time in five years and he's one of the obvious favourites after his semi final run in Miami, but the clay court specialists such as Monaco don't have a great record in the unique conditions of Houston.
The stone and brick dust court surface in Houston is not the same as traditional clay and the Har-Tru surface plays quicker, which explains a list of recent champions that includes the likes of Ryan Sweeting, Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic, Lleyton Hewitt and Mardy Fish. Indeed, the only champions here in recent history with a clay upbringing were Juan Ignacio Chela (2010) and Marcel Granollers (2008), but both of those men - particularly Granollers - are effective on quicker surfaces as well.
This year's draw has thrown up a seemingly perfect opportunity for John Isner to back up his fantastic efforts in Davis Cup at the weekend, but he's a pretty short price at [3.6] as a consequence considering how tired he'll be after those long matches and flights.
Isner is in the bottom half of the draw, along with Feliciano Lopez, Ivo Karlovic, Sweeting, James Blake and not a great deal else in all honesty and the big American is the clear form pick. He has never made it past the quarter finals in Houston though and I doubt how committed he will be to this ATP 250 event under the circumstances with his propensity for physical letdowns.
That bottom half of the draw is wide open though and I will take a chance on a man who always performs well in the Houston conditions at around [100.0] on a back to lay basis.
Wayne Odesnik is not the most popular player on tour after his ban for possession of Human Growth Hormone, but he knows how to play here, with two semi finals and a final in his last three visits.
If Isner is a little flat this week, it's worth a small bet on Odesnik who certainly has it in him to stun the top seed in his quarter, Lopez, who is making his debut on the unusual surface of Houston.
The top half of the draw looks far more competitive, with Monaco, Fish, Kevin Anderson, Ryan Harrison, Xavier Malisse, Alex Bogomolov Jr, and Sam Querrey all potential finalists on their best form.
Fish has played here a lot, but he hasn't made it past the last eight since he won it 2006 on a different surface to the current one and he's too short in the betting for my liking at around [7.6].
Monaco looks like he has the best chance of the shorter priced players, but again, he's coming from a long journey in Davis Cup and instead it could be worth taking a chance on Querrey, who knows these conditions well and is also an attractive price at around [40.0].
Big Sam reached the final here in 2010 and he can be an effective performer on clay on his day, as wins over Isner, Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, Radek Stepanek, Viktor Troicki, Anderson and Phillip Kohlschreiber on the red dirt highlight.
His form since returning from injury has been hit and miss, but he should start picking up soon and Houston would be a great place for him to find some form.
Recommended Bets
Back to lay Wayne Odesnik at around [100.0]
Back to lay Sam Querrey at around [40.0]