Events / Sean Calvert / 06 April 2010 /

This week the ATP Tour moves to the dirt of Houston where Sean Calvert thinks American Wayne Odesnik has a real chance at a big price in a tournament where he's shone in the past. Plus another outsider who can "go deep" this week...

Last week's advice to avoid the big four and back a bigger-priced player, such as Andy Roddick, paid off in the end in Miami as the American took the title. The glamour of Key Biscayne is now over and we head west to Houston for the next event.

The US Men's Clay Court Championship has been around since 1910, but moved location plenty of times before sticking in Texas, where it's been held for the last 10 years.

This is no ordinary clay court tournament though as a look at previous winners of the event shows plenty of big hitters, such as Ivo Karlovic and Andy Roddick; even Pete Sampras made the final here once.

Indeed, this has been a happy hunting ground for the Americans, as a United States player has been in the final on all but one of the nine previous renewals held in Houston.

Last year it was Wayne Odesnik, who perhaps has other things on his mind at the moment, after being found guilty of importing HGH into Australia, but his likely ban from tennis has not been confirmed as yet.

Odesnik, despite the obvious distractions, has a great record here having reached the final last year and the semi finals the year before.

He also has a very decent draw in 2010 and I've had a small wager matched on him at [125.0], which I think is a cracking outside flutter at a massive price.

At the other end of the pricing scale, Fernando Gonzalez is favourite at around [2.4] to claim his second US Men's Clay Court Championship title.

Gonzo won on his debut in this event way back in 2000 when it was held in Orlando, but has only played in Houston once, losing in the first round to Michal Tabara in straight sets in 2001.

The Chilean is in the top half of the draw, which looks much the tougher of the two sections, with defending champ Lleyton Hewitt, former champ Mardy Fish and Argentines Juan Ignacio Chela, Eduardo Schwank and Horacio Zeballos all drawn there.

The latter is in decent form, having beaten Andreas Seppi and Gilles Simon in Miami before losing out to finalist Tomas Berdych and a return to the clay will suit him fine, so he's one to consider.

Hewitt and Fish both have question marks over their fitness and at [12.0] and [21.0] respectively you would have to be thinking about overlooking the pair of them for the title.

This is Hewitt's first event since a hip operation and he last played at the Australian Open back in January, so it's asking a lot for him to defend his title this week, while Fish looked good in Miami before retiring after a painful bout of sciatica and continues to struggle physically.

The pair are still dangerous though, even if they're unlikely to go all the way and Gonzalez's route to the final looks too tricky to get involved with at his current price.

In the bottom half, apart from Odesnik, there's little in the way of tournament pedigree or recognised clay court skills with the exception of Chilean journeyman Nicolas Massu, but one stands out from the crowd.

Evgeny Korolev reached the semi finals here last year in his first appearance and at around [25.0] he's definitely one for the short list.

The 22-year-old has Sam Querrey as the higher seed in his quarter, but Querrey has never won a match here and looks very poor value at around [6.0].

Korolev has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Querrey with both matches taking place on hard courts, which is the American's best surface, so you would have to like Korolev's chances of making the semi finals.

The world number 60 from Kazakhstan has reached one ATP Tour level final so far in his career (Delray Beach in 2009) and this looks an excellent opportunity to improve upon that.

Querrey's mate John Isner looks a slightly better bet than his compatriot and doubles partner, as he has developed a surprising tendency to play well on clay of late.

Isner took Novak Djokovic to five sets in clay in Davis Cup recently and he reached the quarter finals here last year before losing to Odesnik in a match-up that could take place again at the same stage this week.

Another American, Michael Russell, is the seed in Odesnik's immediate section and with a 2-5 record in Houston you wouldn't fancy him much to take out either Isner or Odesnik.

Recommendation:

Back to lay Evgeny Korolev at around [25.0]

Long shot:

Wayne Odesnik at [100.0] upwards

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