Events / Sean Calvert / 29 September 2008 /

The value is in the top half of the draw and Sean Calvert is keeping his eye on a home favourite and an unpredictable Russian to bring him a better betting week.

Last week was disappointing to say the least in terms of my wagers, but now the ATP Tour moves to Japan for the Tokyo Open, where an interesting field has emerged.

Tommy Robredo blew a golden opportunity to earn me a few quid as he eased into the quarters in Beijing, only to be blown away by the surprise package of the week Dudi Sela, who almost went all the way to the title before losing the decider to Andy Roddick.

These things happen at this time of year however and I expect another unlikely candidate to emerge this week in Tokyo, where again a lopsided draw has materialised - in part due to the withdrawal (again) of the injured (again) Gael Monfils.

Last week's champs, Roddick [6.0] and Jo Wilfried Tsonga [7.0] have been drawn in the bottom half along with Robredo [16.0], Fernando Gonzalez [11.0], Tomas Berdych [17.5] and Sam Querrey [23.0], so the less competitive top half looks the place for a bit of value.

Top seed and reigning champion David Ferrer [9.0] continues to display some dismal form and his quarter looks by far the easiest, with Juan Martin Del Potro [4.5] appearing to be the clear choice to make at least the semis - unless Sela [27.0] reprises last week's role of giant killer of course.

Del Potro is in the form of his life and is a worthy favourite in my view given the draw, but he may perhaps be tiring a touch after three tough months, so it could pay to look at the adjacent quarter where Richard Gasquet [13.0] is the lowest seed.

This quarter is impossible to predict with so many variables involved, but a long shot who is worth a serious look is home favourite Kei Nishikori [28.0], who many forget already has a title to his name this year at Delray Beach (beat Blake in the final).

The Japanese star, currently at a career high ranking, played some fantastic stuff in New York including a superb win over Ferrer before running out of gas against Del Potro, but a repeat of that form would give Nishikori a great chance of making it to at least the semis here at a big price.

In the same part of the draw, Mikhail Youzhny [19.0] is an interesting entry who it might pay to keep an eye on.

The unpredictable Russian has been out injured for a while, but he does tend to perform well in the autumn and will be fresh and ready to go with a nice looking draw.

Overlooking Gasquet is generally a sensible play, but the mercurial Frenchman did reach the final here last year and is showing signs of life at the moment.

It doesn't appear to be enough to win tournaments though and unlike last year, Gasquet has no more than a slim chance of making the Masters Cup in Shanghai from his 22nd position in the ATP Race so he is another to avoid.

In the top half it's hard to see Tsonga's delicate knees holding up to a second consecutive week of punishment at the moment and Roddick is unlikely to win back-to-back titles, so is this a chance for Fernando Gonzalez to shine?

The Chilean lost to Bjorn Phau in Beijing last week, but the Tokyo courts may be more suited to his game and that being the case, he has the chance on his tournament debut to stake his claim for a Shanghai berth with a decent showing here.

Gonzalez for me is only one to trust when the odds of reward are high and [11.0] seems a touch low to be getting involved with the big hitting world number 11.

Overall then, my outright selection would be Del Potro with a view to perhaps laying later in the event and a couple of small savers on Youzhny and Nishikori.

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