Events / Editor / 10 September 2007 /

World number one Roger Federer flies to Japan in October, a heavy favourite in the betting to successfully defend his Tokyo Open title.

Fresh from success at the US Open, where the Swiss fully justified his short odds to beat outside bet Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the Flushing Meadows final, Federer will bid to retain the ATP title he lifted in 2006.

Twelve months ago Federer won his ninth title of the year and the 42nd of his career with a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Tim Henman, who was unable to make a mockery of the betting by providing a long-odds final upset.

Few punters will bet against the Swiss holding sway in Tokyo once more, although if the Grand Slam in New York showed anything, it was that there are odds for the shrewd punter further down the market.

Beaten finalist Novak Djokovic has shown he can stand up to Federer, and had breaks in each of the opening two sets of the US Open final. The young Serb thrives on the outdoor hardcourt and could be a value bet to lift the title at the Ariake Colisium given Federer's short odds.

Previous tournaments in Tokyo, however, have proved there is often value in selecting an outsider in the betting. Before Federer's win in 2006, the American Wesley Moodie defied his long odds to beat Mario Ancic.

Britain's Andy Murray could therefore represent a wise pre-tournament bet to make it two British finalists in as many years. After elevating himself into the world's top ten for the very first time, Murray has been stifled by a wrist injury that he is still not fully over.

Despite confirming he again felt "100 %" in September's US Open, Murray's performances indicated otherwise, suffering a disappointing 6-3 6-3 2-6 7-5 loss to Hyung-Taik Lee.

But by October, and with a proven record on the hard surface, Murray is likely to be an outstanding pick in the betting. Indeed Korean Lee, Murray's conqueror at Flushing Meadows, is also worth monitoring in both form and betting in the build up to Tokyo.

His surprise run in the US propelled him into the world's top 40 for the first time and his odds could justify close inspection in the Tokyo Japan Open betting.

Of the usual suspects, Rafael Nadal and Andy Roddick will both be short odds in the betting, but Nadal is keen to prove he can perform on surfaces other than clay and is a safe bet to turn up and contribute 100 per cent.

Anyone wanting a bet on a home winner are likely to be disappointed, but any bets on a Japanese triumph are guaranteed to yield outstanding odds - Suzuki Takao will lead the Japan charge, but ranked below 200 in the world is unlikely to cause much of an upset.

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