The Betfair Contrarian: Why Rafael Nadal won't win the Rome Masters

Events / The Betfair Contrarian / 29 April 2009 / 2

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Yes, sure, we know he's the best. But here are five reasons to lay Nadal at [1.38] to win the Rome Masters.

Rafael Nadal's status as the new dominant force in tennis is highlighted by the fact he starts as the [1.38] favourite in a tournament where he suffered arguably the most disappointing defeat of his clay court career last year. With a record of 33 wins in 36 matches in 2009, it would take a brave man to write the world number one off but the Contrarian, who correctly predicted the end of Roger Federer's five-year Wimbledon monopoly last summer, is confident that the odds will be defied again. Here's why he expects the Spaniard to come unstuck in Rome...

Nadal flopped last year
Last year Nadal arrived in the Italian capital as the clear favourite having triumphed in each of the previous three Rome Masters. However, his participation in the tournament lasted just 114 minutes after he was dumped out in straight sets by compatriot Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second round, having received a bye through the first. Unlike his previous loss on clay a year earlier to Federer in Hamburg, where he was narrowly beaten by his closest rival in the final of the tournament, he wasnt facing someone at the top of their game. Indeed, Ferrero went on to lose in straight sets in the next round against Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka.

Its a tough title to regain
Novak Djokovic was the benefactor from Nadal's early exit last year and worryingly for the Spaniard, just one player in the last 20 years has regained the Rome Masters crown after letting it slip from their grasp: Thomas Muster, the winner in 1990, 1995 and 1996. The struggle to regain supremacy has affected some of the world's best players. Pete Sampras, the 1994 winner, went out in the first round the following year and failed to get past the third round in five attempts after that. 1999 champion Gustavo Kuerten was then the runner-up in each of the following two years. He too never managed to regain the title, winning just one of his four matches there after making three consecutive finals.

...and nobody has won it four times
Nadal is already the joint-most successful player in Rome Masters history, with Muster and Marty Mulligan tying with him on three triumphs. While there aren't many records around about Mulligan's period of success in the 1960s, Muster's third victory saw him reach something of an unbreakable ceiling, as he never managed to make it past the third round again from that point onwards.

The number one seed is cursed
The top seed hasn't been victorious at the Rome Masters since Muster's third and final triumph in 1996. In theory, being named the first seed should confirm a player's status as favourite and keep them away from their biggest rivals until the latter stages but for some reason it has proved a huge disadvantage in Italy. Just three of the last 12 men who have started the tournament with number one in brackets next to their name have reached the quarter-finals. In that time, five have crashed out in the third round, with two bidding farewell in the second round and a further two not even making it past the first.

The draw hasn't been too kind to Nadal
The world number ones bid to retain his crown starts against Andreas Seppi, who won his last encounter with Nadal in Rotterdam last year. The Spaniard has also been drawn in the same half for the tournament as Andy Murray, who has reached the final at four of the last six Masters events, winning three.

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juan | 01 May 2009

at least two of your assumptions actually don't hold.

andy murray is out. and you're forgetting rafa defended his title here twice in a row before last year.

further, one cannot consider his loss to ferrero last year as his worst. it was a loss alright but only because rafa was clearly and severely hampered by a mile-wide gaping blister that was shown in close up on TV for all the world to see. you failed to consider this in your analysis.

lastly, rafa won the roland garros and monte carlo at least 4 times in a row and these tournaments are definitely NOT easy. you may need to reconsider your prediction.
Sonal | 01 May 2009

I think winning any tournament in a row is difficult. Rafa is a one of greatest player & he has already shown his class on all form of courts & like we all know clay is his favourite court. If he's best then nobody can beat him.