Events / Sean Calvert / 20 September 2010 /

Sean Calvert talks us through the respective chances of the big guns over in Metz this week where home favourites Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet will see plenty of support.The value though, lies elsewhere...

Those who followed my advice and backed France and the Czech Republic in the Davis Cup semi finals can count themselves unlucky as the French won easily, while the Czech's just lost out in the deciding rubber.

With the Asian swing beginning in seven days there's a spare week on the ATP Tour and so this week's events are on the clay in Bucharest, which is a lottery, and the hopefully slightly more predictable tournament in Metz, France.

The Open de Moselle is played as it has been since it's beginning in 2003 on indoor hard courts of average pace and the late wildcard entry of Marin Cilic has seen him given number one seed status.

The big Croatian has had a pretty dismal summer by his standards, with just a single semi final to his name (in Washington) on his favoured hard-courts.

Cilic hasn't performed in the Slams either since having a great run in Australia and second round losses in New York and Wimbledon were disappointing, but not unexpected, after a poor six months. He's drawn in the top half along with fellow seeds Gilles Simon, Ivan Ljubicic and Philipp Kohlschreiber, all of whom have claims on their best form, as do Xavier Malisse and Arnaud Clement, the latter having won both singles and doubles here.

It's impossible to predict when veteran Clement is on a good week like he had in New York though and the same could be said of fellow veteran Ljubicic, who won this in 2005 but has done nothing in two appearances since.

Simon is coming back to something approaching his best, but the new dad isn't quite there yet, although he certainly has a decent chance at around [10.0]. His record in Metz is really poor though, having lost four matches out of four here and that puts me off.

Kohlschreiber has been boosted by Miles Maclagan agreeing to become his new coach, but Andy Murray's former adviser won't start working with the German until after the Asian swing.

Kohlschreiber has had a good summer though on the hard-courts, losing only to Rafa Nadal, Roger Federer (on a walkover) and Simon; he also reached the final in Metz last year, so the venue form is there.

He also has a 3-2 head-to-head record over Cilic, with one win each on indoor hard, so if I was going to back anyone in the top half it would probably be Kohlschreiber at a handy price of [14.0].

The bottom half looks just as tough to call, with Richard Gasquet, Michael Llodra, Gael Monfils, Denis Istomin, Paul-Henri Mathieu and Tommy Robredo the major players.

Monfils is defending the title he won here last year, but despite his recent good form no-one has ever successfully retained the Metz crown and I can't see much value in backing Monfils to be the first at around [4.0].

The home favourite has a great 10-2 record here and he has a chance of course, but he still only has two titles to his name which is really poor for a top 15 player, and the value lies elsewhere.

Gasquet is another who looks a little on the short side too at around [6.0], but at least he'll be fresh, if not pleased, after being overlooked for the Davis Cup thrashing of Argentina.

His former glories combined with a decent US Open have seen the layers over-rate the Frenchman in my view and the fact that he has reached one final here in five attempts does little to alter my opinion.

The two that I like in this half if they're fit - and it's a big if - are Llodra and Istomin.

Llodra is in rare form at the moment, having had an impressive US Open where he beat Tomas Berdych, and he also performed well in the Davis Cup at the weekend, which may or may not be a blessing given his injury record.

He has an astonishing 24 retirements and walkovers in all events in his career, which is far too many and he's never gone past the last 16 in Metz, but I think in the form he's in he should go close at around [10.0].

Better value and slightly more reliable (though not much more) is Istomin, who is also in fine form right now.

In his last three events, Istomin has reached the final in New Haven and lost to Nadal and Federer and I think he's overpriced for this at around [33.0].

Istomin is at a career high in the rankings right now and he gave Nadal probably his toughest game (bar Novak Djokovic) at the US Open when he blew a big lead in the second set breaker.

A repeat of his recent form will have the layers sweating at [33.0] and it makes Istomin the value bet in Metz, with Kohlschreiber the next best.

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