Events / Sean Calvert / 26 October 2009 /

Vienna, Lyon and St Petersburg all host tournaments this week and Sean Calvert expects Gael Monfils to go close in Vienna. But which French outsider in Lyon and Serbian in St Petersburg does he also fancy to make us money?

It was a profitable event in Moscow last week overall, with Marat Safin obligingly despatching Nikolay Davydenko in the first round at a handy [3.25] ; the big Russian was actually available at [7.0] after the first set.

There are three tournaments this week in which to invest your Safin winnings and of the three, I like the chances of a couple of Frenchmen in Vienna and Lyon and perhaps a Serbian in St Petersburg.

The Austrian capital's tennis tournament is played on one of the slowest indoor hard courts on the ATP Tour and despite the efforts of the organisers to speed it up last year, it remained slow.

As the last few weeks have shown, we are in the most unpredictable part of the tennis season right now, with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis winning events and of course Philipp Petzschner is the defending champion in Vienna, so anything's possible in October.

We are looking for players who have reasons to win tournaments at this time of year and also for players with autumn form, which brings us to Gael Monfils.

Last year's Vienna runner-up is well-suited to these slow courts and due to the fact that he has only won one ATP 250 event this year, he has room for another such title in his rankings portfolio in the race to make the end of season shoot-out in London.

Monfils, who currently lies in 13th in the rankings will have noted that countryman Gilles Simon was 16th in the rankings last October, but ended up rising to ninth, which was good enough to make the Tour finals in 2008, so Monfils should in theory be all over this event.

He has been handed a good draw, with John Isner - who surely won't be suited to the conditions - as the other seed in his quarter, while Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer shouldn't cause Monfils much in the way of lost sleep.

Melzer has never bettered the quarter finals here in nine attempts, while Monfils beat Stepanek in straight sets here last year and has never lost to the Czech on hard courts.

I expect Monfils to get to the final, where he should face Marin Cilic if the seedings go to plan.

Cilic is in good nick at the moment, but he's never won a title at this time of the year and is a little on the short side at almost half the price of Monfils.

The Croatian has some tricky opponents in his half of the draw, including the unpredictable trio of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez, plus a resurgent Jarkko Nieminen. Cilic isn't much value at [3.25] in my view given his own inconsistency.

Over in Lyon, the indoor hardcourt event is once again played on one of the faster surfaces on tour and the draw has thrown up what should be a last chance for a French veteran to have a final tilt at an ATP title.

Marc Gicquel reached the final here in 2006 and 2007 and took tournament favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three tough sets here last year.

The world number 63 pulled out of Moscow citing a sore throat last week, but I would suggest that Gicquel had Lyon in mind when arriving at that decision.

He loves playing on these quick indoor courts and Lyon is without doubt his favourite event of the ATP Tour.

The draw has seen Gicquel avoid Tsonga and instead pair him with Gilles Simon, who Gicquel has beaten three times from their four indoor hardcourt meetings.

At 32 years of age the indoor specialist will see this as a last chance to claim a tour level title and at odds of around [29.0], it's worth a small bet against the likes of Tsonga [2.25] and Simon [4.0], neither of whom have made the final in Lyon in two and three previous attempts respectively.

If you feel the need to have a bet in the week's other event in St. Petersburg - an event that usually throws up some very odd results indeed - then I would look at backing Viktor Troicki at around [10.0].

The Serbian rediscovered his touch on the Asian swing and his only losses since have been to Novak Djokovic and Gilles Simon, which would be expected.

He has the best of the draw - paired with Mikhail Youzhny - who will be tired after his Moscow exploits and in a very unpredictable tournament Troicki, who recently had plenty of time off with a foot injury, might prove a decent back-to-lay shot.

Recommendations:

Lyon: Back-to-lay Marc Gicquel at around [29.0]
Vienna: Back Gael Monfils at around [6.5]
St Petersburg: Back-to-lay Viktor Troicki at around [10] (small stakes)

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