Events / Sean Calvert / 27 April 2009 /

After a profitable week for Sean Calvert in Barcelona, the tour moves to Rome where 63 of the world's top players will once again be trying to work out how to dent Rafael Nadal's dominance on the red dirt.

Starting with the positives from Barcelona, I correctly predicted that it would be a Rafa Nadal v David Ferrer final, but sadly the Valencian was unable to find a way to beat the world number one this time.

It didnt help Ferrer's cause that Nadal was handed a bye with the withdrawal of David Nalbandian in the quarter-finals. The last thing you need if you're Ferrer is taking on a nicely rested Nadal when youve been slugging out tight three setters all week.

At least it was a profitable event though as Ferrer was matched as high as [60.0] and as low as [9.6], so there were ample opportunities to make money following the back-to-lay advice.

Nadal was once again at his brilliant best against Ferrer and we now move on to Rome where 63 of the world's top players will once more try and solve the conundrum of how to put a dent in Nadal's dominance on the red dirt.

The Pearl de Manacor for once is not defending the title in Rome, where he lost out to Juan Carlos Ferrero in his opening match in 2008, but that defeat is Nadal's only loss at the Rome Masters from 18 matches and I seem to recall that he was hampered by injury in the all-Spanish encounter.

Nadal won this in 2005, '06 and '07 and will start at around [1.4] to claim his fourth Rome Masters title, but the defending champion is Novak Djokovic, who took advantage of Nadal's early loss to beat Stan Wawrinka in the final and is a [15.0] shot to repeat that victory.

There seems little point in investing in that because should Nadal make the final, Djokovic won't be a great deal shorter to beat the Spaniard anyway, although the Serbian is starting to look useful again after a period in the doldrums.

Sadly, the same cannot be said of Roger Federer, who clearly has other things on his mind at the moment and the Swiss has a poor record in Rome in any case.

The fact that Federer is fourth favourite with some layers behind Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray tells its own story and [13.0] represents poor value for a player who has been beaten by Radek Stepanek and Filippo Volandri in his last two Rome outings.

The only saving grace for Federer is that he has been handed a plum draw with Gilles Simon [160.00] the highest ranked player in his quarter, although Ferrer [65.0] is in that section as well. After the embarrassment of Monte Carlo, it's hard to see even a great champion such as Federer winning here at his worst when he was unable to do so at his peak.

Nadal himself has been given a charitable draw with that renowned clay-courter James Blake [1000.00] as the seed in his section and Nadal will probably find Marcel Granollers [1000.00] his last 16 opponent.

Things might get tougher for Nadal in the last eight where he will probably play Fernando Verdasco [60.0] but since the Madrid man has for some inexplicable reason reverted back to dollying his serve in rather than hitting it with the menace he showed in Melbourne it's hard to see Verdasco prevailing.

The adjacent section of the draw to Nadal's looks an interesting one with Andy Murray [18.5] the man seeded to meet the world number one in the semi-finals. The Scot has a dreadful record in Rome, never having won a completed match here in three starts, but he is clearly making strides on the red dirt and he is the only player that actually believes he can beat Nadal - regardless of the playing surface.

Murray should certainly improve his Rome statistics this time as he has only Juan Ignacio Chela to concern him early on, but a quarter-final against probably Fernando Gonzalez [80.0] or Nikolay Davydenko [110.00] will provide a stern test of his title credentials.

Gonzalez had something of a resurgence in Barcelona and showed his best form for a while, which is great to see. The Chilean has been lightly worked by new coach Martin Rodriguez so far this season, which has kept him fresh and he showed enough last week to convince me that he is the best of the outsiders.

His serve looked potent last week and that grandstand forehand is back after a Stefanki-inspired period of over reliance on the backhand slice. Gonzo reached the final here in 2007 and has only been beaten by Nadal in his Rome appearances since 2005, losing out to the world number one in 07 and in the quarters in 06.

The final section of the draw is of course that of Djokovic and the defending champ looks to have few serious rivals for a semi-final spot. The seed in his section is Juan Martin Del Potro [60.0], who is not much of a threat on the red stuff and once again Wawrinka [110.00] may prove to be the toughest test for the Serbian to negotiate.

Nadal will be desperate to regain his Rome title and assuming that he's ok physically this time, that [1.4] should be looking mighty big come finals day.

Murray is next best for me at [18.5] and could be worth a small saver, while anywhere around [100.00] on Gonzalez is worth a bet and should provide an entertaining and hopefully profitable tournament at the Rome Masters.

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