Events / Sean Calvert / 24 March 2010 /

Indian Wells produced a shock winner and, with the top players all suffering from different problems, Sean Calvert believes it might be wise to back an outsider in Miami too.

I told you that the likely finalists at Indian Wells would be a bloke named Andy and a tall, big-hitting Croatian, however I was just slightly inaccurate with the details.

Yes, Croatia's Ivan Ljubicic rolled back the years with a series of great performances to take out Andy Roddick in the final, having been matched at [600.00] outright at the start.

I also said that were question marks over the main men at the moment and none of them proved me wrong with the arguable exception of Rafa Nadal, who showed glimpses of a return to form in California. But those question marks remain as we head to Florida for the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami - the second of the Masters 1000 events of 2010, so will there be another Ljubicic in Miami?

The answer to that is quite possibly, as Roger Federer [3.5], Novak Djokovic [13.5] and Nadal [5.2] don't really appeal as betting prospects for this tournament for various reasons.

Federer, lets be honest, isn't really too fussed about these events, although I'm sure he'd like to win if possible, which goes against his Slam attitude of win at all costs.

The Swiss hasn't tasted victory in Miami since beating Ljubcic in the final in 2006 in (surprise, surprise) three breakers, when the final was a five set affair and of late he has been beaten here by Djokovic, Roddick and Guillermo Canas.

After losing to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, Federer will be looking for some court time here and he couldn't have wished for an easier opening section of the draw, paired as he is with the fading Carlos Moya, Gilles Simon, who has been injured and lost in a challenger final last week to Florian Mayer, Albert Montanes and Tomas Berdych.

In the last eight, Fed would probably face one of Baghdatis, Marin Cilic or Fernando Verdasco and with the Spaniard still struggling physically by all accounts, there is a chance for Cilic [26.0] if he can put two poor displays in his last two events behind him. The Croatian's poor record in Miami doesn't encourage though and that quarter of the draw is one that Federer should get through.

The adjoining section is where Andy Murray [7.6] finds himself drawn and the Scot will be desperate to banish the thought of his insipid effort in California by doing well here in defence of his 2009 title. To do it, Murray has the likes of Stan Wawrinka, Feliciano Lopez, Mardy Fish and Mikhail Youzhny in his immediate section, followed by a last eight meeting with one of Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Monaco, Janko Tipsarevic, or Robin Soderling. Several of those have beaten Murray before and he'll need to improve on Indian Wells to make it. He didn't look 100% fit to me in the Californian desert and he might just be best watched this week.

The bottom half of the draw is where Nadal and Djokovic are and this pair are beatable again this week. Djokovic is really struggling at the moment and he has acquired a Soderling-esque habit of disappearing mid-match and then having to pull out all the stops to get back on track.

You can only get away with that so many times and the Serb has a tricky start in Miami, with both Richard Gasquet and James Blake to play early on, assuming they win their first round matches. After that, Djokovic would have Sam Querrey or Gael Monfils in the last eight, with either Ljubicic or Roddick to follow. That's tough for a man battling himself as well as the field and it could be too much for Djokovic.

In the adjacent quarter, Nadal has a few big hitters in his section, including John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Jo Wilfried Tsonga and a significant wildcard in the tubby form of David Nalbandian. Nadal won't have conditions as much in his favour in Miami as he did in Indian Wells and there's every chance that one of the big servers could get rid of him.

We all know what Nalbandian can do on a good week but his injury problems have set him back a fair way and he lost in straight sets to Jurgen Melzer last week, which tells you where he's at right now, as does his current price of [160.00].

In conclusion, the big four remain vulnerable, with Murray the pick of the bunch, so this might be another opportunity to look at some of the bigger priced players and ones for the shortlist would be John Isner [100.00], Jo Wilfried Tsonga [46.0], Marin Cilic [26.0] and Andy Roddick [19.0].

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: