Events / Sean Calvert / 08 February 2010 /

Rotterdam's slick hard courts make for some unpredictable results. So where is Sean Calvert putting his money this week?

All good things must come to an end sometime - just ask a certain former England football captain. Yes, our winning streak came to a halt at the weekend when Fernando Gonzalez blew a set and a break lead in the semis of the Movistar Open.

It was a disappointing effort from Gonzo in front of his home fans, but now after a brief fling on the red dirt of South America, it's back to Europe for the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

The indoor hard courts in Rotterdam are pretty much the quickest surface on tour and results here are not easy to predict, as can be shown by a quick look at the winners here in the last few years.

Michael Llodra, Mikhail Youzhny and Radek Stepanek have all triumphed here in the last four years and Max Mirnyi even won here as recently as 2003, so it can be a tournament where it's wise to look at outsiders.

The speed of the courts brings players into the frame who you wouldn't normally consider, such as Llodra, Feliciano Lopez and James Blake and the draw has given second favourite Nikolay Davydenko [4.5] a bit of a personal nightmare.

Davy's recent impressive form means that he'll have plenty of support here, but he must overcome some of his worst match-ups if he wants to make the final here for the first time in six tries.

The Russian faces Lopez [60.0] first up and the Spanish lefty has a 5-1 head-to-head record over the world number six, who has won just four of 15 sets against him.

Added to that of course is the fact that Lopez comes here in hot form, having just won the title in Johannesburg, so it might be worth laying Davy at around [1.27] in that clash.

If he gets through that one it could get worse for Davy, as he may face James Blake [34.0], who has beaten him seven times out of seven and who even beat him on clay last year. It's fair to say that Blake is very much in Davydenko's head when those two play.

The American has a tough one first up though against Sydney champion Marcos Baghdatis [25.0], but even the Cypriot holds a 3-1 head-to-head over Davydenko, so there are no easy matches for the Russian.

If Davydenko reaches the semi-finals it would probably be a familiar foe in Robin Soderling whom he faces and yes, you've guessed it Soderling also holds a winning head-to-head over the Russian.

The pair played five times last season alone, with the Swede winning three and he holds a 6-4 overall advantage in their clashes.

Talking of Soderling [7.5], I expect a good showing from him after what has been a disappointing start to 2010 following the best season of his career in 2009.

He has lost his two main tour matches in 2010 to Marcel Granollers and Robby Ginepri, which is not great form, but with a favourable draw and conditions in his favour in Rotterdam, I expect Soderling to turn that around.

Favourite and top seed here is new world number two Novak Djokovic, but I'm not in any rush to take up the [3.5] that's on offer about the Serb.

Djokovic has never made it past the semi-finals in Rotterdam and an interesting statistic is that in his seven matches here, six have gone to a deciding set, so he doesn't do things the easy way in this event.

I prefer the claims in the bottom half of the draw of former winner Youzhny, who has beaten Djokovic in both of the duo's indoor hard court meetings (including here in 2007) and has a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over the over big player in the top half, Gael Monfils.

The only question mark would be over Youzhny's fitness, after he withdrew in the Australian Open third round.

Recommendations:
Back Soderling outright at [7.5]
Back to lay Youzhny outright at [25]

Best outsider: Michael Llodra at [110]

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