Events / Sean Calvert / 16 May 2011 /

Sean Calvert assesses the field as the likes of David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych bid for glory in the south of France.

We got the final that I expected in Rome last week, but few envisaged Novak Djokovic coming back after a three-hour semi final and handing Rafa Nadal another beating on his favourite surface.

It was an incredible performance from Nole, who is now vying for favouritism for the French Open at around [2.7] and he also has a great chance of breaking John McEnroe's unbeaten streak record set in 1984.

With Roland Garros a week away, the ATP Tour heads to France for the final clay-court event ahead of the big one and a strong field has assembled in Nice for the Open de Nice Côte d'Azur.

This ATP 250 event only returned to the calendar last year when it was won by Richard Gasquet, who has opted not to defend his title in 2011 and after his fine run to the semis in Rome, that's probably a wise decision so close to Paris.

David Ferrer is top seed this week after withdrawing in Rome due to a fever and the world number six looks to have an outstanding opportunity to win his 11th career title at around [2.7] after a look at the draw.

Ferrer didn't play here last year, but clearly feels he needs a bit of match practice ahead of Paris, where surprisingly, he's never performed very well.

The Spaniard has a fine 18-3 record on the dirt this season and he won't be too concerned with his opponents in the top half of the draw, which include Andy Roddick, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Filippo Volandri, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Pablo Cuevas and Victor Hanescu.

Roddick is number four seed this week, but hasn't reached a clay-court final since Houston in 2005; he's been particularly poor this year, with first round losses to Flavio Cipolla and Gilles Simon in his last two events.

Dolgopolov has a chance on his early season form, but The Dog has been really out of sorts lately, with four first round losses in a row on the red dirt. He's also held by Ferrer on their meeting in Acapulco a few months ago.

The others in the top half are essentially journeymen clay-courters and it would be a big shock if Ferrer failed to make the championship match at the weekend.

The bottom half of the draw looks more competitive, with Nicolas Almagro, Tomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis, Marcos Baghdatis and Julien Benneteau all capable of winning this kind of tournament on their best form.

Almagro is still the clay surface leader in 2011 with 20 wins and five losses, but he hasn't been able to transfer his excellent form from the Golden Swing in South America to Europe so far.

The Spaniard will probably have to get past Berdych if he wants to win here and the pair's most recent meeting was this week last year when they played the team event in Dusseldorf and Berdych won, as he has in three of their four clashes - all on clay.

So, you would give the Czech a slight advantage, but he hasn't reached a clay-court final since Munich in 2009 and he's played 12 red dirt events since (not including Davis Cup).

Gulbis, as ever, is an interesting wild card, with the talented Latvian going through yet another lean spell at the moment. He has lost to Carlos Berlocq, Milos Raonic and Ilya Marchenko in his last three events and a first round match-up with Fabio Fognini might be too tough on current form.

You never can tell with Gulbis though and he could well find his form this week, but I'd want a better price than [23.0] if I was siding with the Latvian.

Baghdatis is another who is in poor form right now, with a 2-5 record on the dirt in 2011 and the Cypriot hasn't been at the races since suffering a bout of flu in March. Clay isn't Baggy's best surface in any case, with his career best on the surface being a couple of semi-finals in Munich.

Benneteau is yet to find his old form after incurring a wrist injury at the end of last season and lost in a challenger to 34-year-old Marc Gicquel last week. Young sensation, Grigor Dimitrov, is interesting, but he lost in the second round of a Prague Challenger last week to world number 302, Dennis Bloemke - as incidentally did Thomas Muster.

So, if fit and if interested - and those are the two worries - Ferrer should be a near certainty to reach the final this week and with convincing head-to-head leads over his nearest rivals, Almagro and Berdych, he is the bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Ferrer at [2.7]

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