Events / Sean Calvert / 21 September 2009 /

Sean Calvert believes that this week is all about who to oppose at the Moselle Open ...

It was another profitable week in the Davis Cup last week and while I probably won't win many prizes for tipping Spain, the Czech Republic's comfortable win over home side Croatia was a nice boost to the funds.

This week is probably one of the most difficult in which to pick a tournament winner, as quite a few of the players have been playing on various different surfaces in the Davis Cup and those that haven't represented their country have probably been taking it easy after the North American hardcourt season.

On that basis, it's likely to prove more profitable to work out which of the market leaders won't win this week and lay them accordingly, while having a small investment on some long shots at tasty looking prices.

Both of this week's events look very trappy to call, but I'm concentrating on the indoor event in Metz - the Open de Moselle.

The picturesque city of Metz, famed for it's yellow limestone architecture, has something of a reputation for being a 'Green City' due to its abundance of parks and green spaces, but it's Metz's tennis surface that is of interest to us.

Some of the players have commented that Metz is the slowest surface on tour and that the balls are the heaviest on tour, so this week is perhaps not one to go with the big hitters.

There isn't much of a history to this event, as it's only been played six times at this venue, but recent history and current form tells me to lay one of the favourites, German Phillip Kohlschreiber.

The world number 23 has a poor 1-3 record here and indeed throughout his career at tour level and challenger level Kohlschreiber has struggled indoors and still has a negative overall record.

Add to this the fact that the German has been beaten in the last two months by Lukasz Kubot, Pablo Cuevas, Victor Crivoi, Victor Hanescu and Chris Guccione, while not making it past the last 16 of any event since June, you have some solid lay material at around [5.5].

I also wouldn't disagree with laying the tournament favourite in addition to Kohlschreiber, who is the second favourite.

Gael Monfils is by far the highest ranked player in the event at number 13, but it must be remembered that he has only one tournament victory to his name, which was on the outdoor clay of Sopot, Poland in 2005. The Frenchman hasn't played in this event since 2005, when he made the finals (lost to Ljubicic) and his indoor record this year is 3-3.

Add that to his poor injury record - Monfils has retired in 10 matches in his career so far and limped his way to defeat in many more - and you have quite a few reasons to go against this [3.9] shot.

Another home player who is probably best avoided this week is Richard Gasquet at a price of around [13.0].

It appears to me a gross overestimation of Gasquet's powers that he can be the fourth favourite to win this event, having played just three tour level matches since April and he has only won one of those.

Even back in his top 10 days Gasquet's record here in Metz was hit and miss, so he is another to be avoided for my money.

Whilst we're on the subject of the favourites, I'm not massive on the chances of Paul-Henri Mathieu at around [8.2] either, but I wouldn't put it past him to have a decent run. I would certainly rather lay than back in any case.

So, having picked apart the chances of pretty much all of the favourites, who is going to go close in Metz?

Well, I would suggest that some of the bigger priced guys have a decent chance this week now that the likes of Tommy Robredo, Jeremy Chardy, Julien Benneteau, Leonardo Mayer and Mikhail Youzhny have pulled out of the tournament.

Marc Gicquel has a great record indoors and has reached the quarters and the semis in the last three years here and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go well again this time.

The 32-year-old hasn't exactly set the world on fire in 2009, but he tends to save his best for here and Lyon, so I'd rather be backing Gicquel at around [28.0] than the likes of Gasquet or Mathieu.

If you fancy a real outside punt, then how about another Frenchman Adrian Mannarino, whom I have seen offered at around [150.00]?

The left hander from Soizy reached the semi finals in Metz as a qualifier last year, defeated Andreas Seppi, Florent Serra and Gicquel, before losing out in two breakers to Mathieu.

He has a good record indoors, particularly at challenger level, where he has a 29-19 record and despite retiring in a challenger last week with a right knee injury, Mannarino has to be worth a few quid at those sort of odds.

Others who have been struggling with injury include Mathieu and Ouanna.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Kohlschreiber, Monfils and Gasquet
Back Gicquel and Mannarino (small stakes)

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